ASIA
21 June 2025
America, a new autocracy?
America is dangerously close to slipping into an autocracy, according to Barack Obama.
How could it be that the US, basically the world’s first modern democracy, is slipping into an autocracy, as former US President Barack Obama has suggested?
One perspective on this issue is offered by political analyst, Moisés Naïm, who argues the autocrats of today, the “new autocrats”, are fundamentally different and more devious than the autocrats of yesteryear. First of all, let’s recall the “old autocrats”.
Then a shady figure, with dark sunglasses, would appear on television, announcing that he and his gang had taken over the country. Street corners would be manned by their goons, instilling fear in the population and imposing their authority.
The end of the Cold War saw the spread of democratic and liberal ideas and policies. This has required adaptation by autocrats in the way they seize power. Today, a potential autocrat is invariably democratically elected to public office (as was Hitler bytheway). In campaigning for election, he often employs the “3-P” strategy of populism, polarization, and post-truth.
Once these new potential autocrats are elected into office, they then manipulate the systems and institutions of democracy, to entrench themselves into office and ensure that their cronies can profit from their regime.
Why are autocrats so keen to stay in power indefinitely? One simple reason is that history shows that autocrats often end up in jail or being assassinated when they leave office. It’s not difficult to imagine this being a great worry of President Putin.
In all these cases, they won office by political elections, giving them an air of political legitimacy. However, in the US over the last 20 years, states have implemented “voter suppression” by erecting barriers to the ballot box like strict voter ID laws, cutting early voting times, restricting registration, and purging voter rolls too aggressively. Such antidemocratic measures have kept significant numbers of eligible voters from the polls, especially among racial minorities, poor people, and young and old voters.
But the first sign that something was horribly wrong in American politics is when Donald Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement were able to hijack the Republican Party. Not so long ago, the Grand Old Party of American politics used to stand for, inter alia, fiscal conservatism, free trade, and America global leadership, and represented society’s elite. But today it has been turned on its head by Trump and MAGA.
Trump has also managed to subjugate many Congress members by controlling their election finances and threatening their chances of winning primaries. US institutions can also be rendered ineffectual when cronies are appointed as judges (with lifetime appointments) or to other senior positions. For example, Republicans now have a distinct majority on the Supreme Court.
Elon Musk’s appointment to the Department of Government Efficiency and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s appointment as US Secretary of Health and Human Services are two, and not the only, bizarre nominations of Donald Trump.
Trump is also undermining the US justice system through his politicisation of the Department of Justice which in theory oversees the domestic enforcement of federal laws and the administration of justice. And Trump is now also manipulating the political system by using the country’s military against its own citizens in California.
What’s more, Trump has threatened Canada, Greenland and Panama, and launched an outrageous trade war, in defiance of international trade law.
How does this work? Going back in time, before government authority, the vacuum was filled by ambitious people who seized the opportunity to become “roving bandits,” traveling from one territory to the next stealing, extorting, looting, and pillaging. But one day the successful bandit decides to settle down in one spot and become a “stationary bandit”.
The bandit’s incentives change decisively. He needs to foster a reliable source of income. He inevitably starts to provide some of the services of a state, and keep other invaders out. The miracle of modernity is precisely that this early predatory state evolved over a period of about four hundred years into peaceful, modern democracies where the law protects all people equally, with a social contract between leaders and their citizens.
But there is always the temptation for leaders with an autocratic bent to try to dominate politics and society, and break the social contract, if they believe they can get away with it – as Putin and Trump obviously believe they can. And they are not the only ones – there are others in Hungary, and Turkey to name just a couple.
Is there a way back to normalcy for America? It will require people who staff America’s “wonderful institutions” to develop some backbone and stand up to Trump, as well as continued public resistance. But at the time of writing, the future is more uncertain than ever – especially since Trump and his MAGA movement retain substantial support..
José Ortega y Gasset, a Spanish philosopher and essayist, wrote in 1938-1939, on the eve of world war, "We don't know what is happening to us." Most regrettably, this is where America is now.
Author
Asian Century...on a knife-edge
One perspective on this issue is offered by political analyst, Moisés Naïm, who argues the autocrats of today, the “new autocrats”, are fundamentally different and more devious than the autocrats of yesteryear. First of all, let’s recall the “old autocrats”.
The old autocrats
We all have in our minds the image of the military or other groups launching a coup. They would physically capture and perhaps assassinate government leaders, and occupy government buildings.Then a shady figure, with dark sunglasses, would appear on television, announcing that he and his gang had taken over the country. Street corners would be manned by their goons, instilling fear in the population and imposing their authority.
New autocrats
Modern day autocrats seize power today in fundamentally different ways from earlier times, according to Naím. Why?The end of the Cold War saw the spread of democratic and liberal ideas and policies. This has required adaptation by autocrats in the way they seize power. Today, a potential autocrat is invariably democratically elected to public office (as was Hitler bytheway). In campaigning for election, he often employs the “3-P” strategy of populism, polarization, and post-truth.
Populism, polarization, and post-truth
Populism is relevant to a society divided (by wealth or cultural values) into two antagonistic groups. And of course the potential autocratic leader presents himself as a representative of the “pure people" and their frustrations with "the corrupt elite" who are the root cause of their problems. The potential autocrat then seeks to exacerbate the polarisation of societies, most notably “post truth” narratives or propaganda.Once these new potential autocrats are elected into office, they then manipulate the systems and institutions of democracy, to entrench themselves into office and ensure that their cronies can profit from their regime.
Why are autocrats so keen to stay in power indefinitely? One simple reason is that history shows that autocrats often end up in jail or being assassinated when they leave office. It’s not difficult to imagine this being a great worry of President Putin.
Who are the new autocrats
Who would be these new autocrats? Russia’s Putin, Türkiye’s Erdoğan, the Philippines’ Duterte, Hungary’s Orbán, India’s Modi, Israel’s Netanyahu and Italy’s Berlusconi, are just a few examples. And then of course, we have America’s Donald Trump.In all these cases, they won office by political elections, giving them an air of political legitimacy. However, in the US over the last 20 years, states have implemented “voter suppression” by erecting barriers to the ballot box like strict voter ID laws, cutting early voting times, restricting registration, and purging voter rolls too aggressively. Such antidemocratic measures have kept significant numbers of eligible voters from the polls, especially among racial minorities, poor people, and young and old voters.
Trump undermines US democracy
My American friends will frequently speak to me of their faith in their country’s “wonderful institutions” that supposedly protect their democracy from potential autocrats. These institutions include most notably the US system of “checks and balances” through the three branches of government.But the first sign that something was horribly wrong in American politics is when Donald Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement were able to hijack the Republican Party. Not so long ago, the Grand Old Party of American politics used to stand for, inter alia, fiscal conservatism, free trade, and America global leadership, and represented society’s elite. But today it has been turned on its head by Trump and MAGA.
Trump has also managed to subjugate many Congress members by controlling their election finances and threatening their chances of winning primaries. US institutions can also be rendered ineffectual when cronies are appointed as judges (with lifetime appointments) or to other senior positions. For example, Republicans now have a distinct majority on the Supreme Court.
Elon Musk’s appointment to the Department of Government Efficiency and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s appointment as US Secretary of Health and Human Services are two, and not the only, bizarre nominations of Donald Trump.
Trump is also undermining the US justice system through his politicisation of the Department of Justice which in theory oversees the domestic enforcement of federal laws and the administration of justice. And Trump is now also manipulating the political system by using the country’s military against its own citizens in California.
What’s more, Trump has threatened Canada, Greenland and Panama, and launched an outrageous trade war, in defiance of international trade law.
Mafia origins of nation state
The rise of new autocrats is a harsh reminder that modern states have mafia-like origins, as analysed by political scientist, Mancur Olsen..How does this work? Going back in time, before government authority, the vacuum was filled by ambitious people who seized the opportunity to become “roving bandits,” traveling from one territory to the next stealing, extorting, looting, and pillaging. But one day the successful bandit decides to settle down in one spot and become a “stationary bandit”.
The bandit’s incentives change decisively. He needs to foster a reliable source of income. He inevitably starts to provide some of the services of a state, and keep other invaders out. The miracle of modernity is precisely that this early predatory state evolved over a period of about four hundred years into peaceful, modern democracies where the law protects all people equally, with a social contract between leaders and their citizens.
But there is always the temptation for leaders with an autocratic bent to try to dominate politics and society, and break the social contract, if they believe they can get away with it – as Putin and Trump obviously believe they can. And they are not the only ones – there are others in Hungary, and Turkey to name just a couple.
The emergence of a “mafia state”
The new autocrats are building the modern “mafia state”. The leading example of a “mafia state” is Russia which reserves security and extraordinary wealth for a minuscule elite that answers directly to Putin alone. The entire Russian economy is, for all intents and purposes, beholden to the dictator. Sadly, Trump’s America seems to have embarked in this direction.Is there a way back to normalcy for America? It will require people who staff America’s “wonderful institutions” to develop some backbone and stand up to Trump, as well as continued public resistance. But at the time of writing, the future is more uncertain than ever – especially since Trump and his MAGA movement retain substantial support..
José Ortega y Gasset, a Spanish philosopher and essayist, wrote in 1938-1939, on the eve of world war, "We don't know what is happening to us." Most regrettably, this is where America is now.
Acknowledgements
John WestAuthor
Asian Century...on a knife-edge