Can Paris survive French political turmoil?

A cosmopolitan moves to Paris

Just 9 months ago, Financial Times’ journalist Simon Kuper wrote his story of life in Paris. Kuper painted a quite optimistic picture of life in the City of Light. But it is difficult to see how it could remain immune to the current fractures in national politics and the risk of France becoming an ungovernable country.

Kuper is an example of the cosmopolitan elite who has moved to Paris in recent decades. He bought an investment property in Paris about 22 years ago because he could not afford one in London. He quickly became a Parisian, in part because of his love of Parisian lunches.

One of his best tips is to always order “le menu du jour”, which will have been freshly prepared that morning. Any other dish of the very many on a typical Parisian menu will have been frozen and reheated. So please avoid. In time, Kuper met and married an American journalist. They now have three children. And all of them now have French nationality.

Stories of Paris

Paris, like most cities, has its quirks and particularities. Kuper tells many stories about life in Paris. It is a city with a mass of laws and regulations which the Parisians typically do not obey. It has also a culture with more codes of behaviour than say London or New York – and which are incomprehensible to not only foreigners, but also the “ploucs”, those country bumpkins who have moved to Paris from the provinces.

Kuper lived through some of the great tragedies of Parisian life, notably the 2015 terrorist attack, the 2019 fire which destroyed large parts of Notre Dame Cathedral, and of course Covid-19. He is obviously admirative of the resilience of the French. As it happens, Notre Dame will be reopened to the public very soon on 8 December.

Parisians were not keen on the recently-held Olympic Games, fearing terrorism and congestion, and not appreciating all the security measures that closed roads and metro stations, and required QR codes to move around certain parts of the city. Many Parisians left on international travel during the Games.

But the Paris 2024 Olympic Games were without a doubt very successful. They were very well organised, offered a wonderful spectacle of French life and culture, and had virtually no security problems.

Some Parisian portraits

Life in Paris can be very different from “la France profonde”, the deep countryside, which supports France’s far-right and far-left political parties.

“Bobos” appear frequently through Kuper’s Parisian narrative. They are the socio-economic bourgeois-bohemian group, and a French analogue to the English notion of the "champagne socialist".

Kuper’s children bring him in contact with many aspects of French society, through the multiethnic parents of their friends, and as they travel to the suburbs to play “football” (otherwise known as soccer). Kupar sees football as a major motor for social integration of migrant communities, thanks in part to “complexes sportifs” provided by the state. He contends that Paris is now the world’s leading producer of football talent.

Kuper acknowledges that his children will always speak much better French than him, and have a deeper understanding of Parisian society and behavioural codes. He had the same experience with his parents. They migrated from South Africa to the Netherlands. While Kuper fully integrated into Dutch life, that was not the case for his parents.

A Tale of Two Cities

The Paris that Kuper describes is much more than a picture postcard city, and the city that most tourists witness. Paris comprises the city inside “Boulevard Périphérique” (ring road), often called the “Périph”. This area is usually referred to as “Intramuros” (inside the wall), where only about 2 million people live. Many of them are Bobos who ride bicycles and eat sushi for lunch, although there are also some areas where poorer people live.

Les banlieues (suburbs) surround Paris and house some 10 million people, making the Grand Paris metropolis the biggest city in Europe – Paris also has Europe's largest Muslim and Jewish populations. The residents come from all classes, but with a bigger concentration of poorer people. Most of the suburbs were rapidly built in the decades after World War 2.

The suburbs include Seine-Saint-Denis which is the poorest department in mainland France. This is where the Olympic stadium, the aquatic centre and the athletes village are located.

Breaking down Paris’ internal barriers

Paris has long been divided from neighbouring regions by city walls and gates as part of the city’s defences. The portes (city gates) of Saint-Denis and Saint-Martin from the 17th century are still standing. The current shape of Paris, with its grand boulevards and six-story apartment blocks is thanks to the architect Baron Haussmann during the 1850s to 70s, who was keen to keep the poor people outside of Paris.

The Périph (construction completed in 1973) was the most recent initiative that separated Paris from its suburbs. Paris’s urban layout reminds Kupar of the white South African town of Johannesburg, and its nearby essentially black town of Soweto.

After a number of failed attempts, the biggest infrastructure project in Europe is underway to unite Paris with its neighbouring suburbs. This “Grand Paris” project will build some 68 new metro stations, linked to the main metro system, which will open over the next 7 years. Big housing projects are also underway near these stations. Kupar believes this project will be transformative in terms of forging an integrated city.

The bicycle city

Until recently Paris was a 21st century city, with 19th century urban planning, such that traffic jams were chronic. There is simply not enough room for cars in Paris. Nevertheless, in the 1990s, bicycles did not exist in Paris. Under the administration of Anne Hidalgo, Paris Mayor since 2014, cars are being squeezed out of Paris by the massive expansion of bicycle paths.

According to Kupar, today there would be 50% more bikes than cars in Paris, bicycles travel faster than cars, there are now virtually no traffic deaths, the air is cleaner, and Paris’s cyclists are now healthier. Paris is perfect for cycling, being mostlycsmall and flat. In sum, bicycles are transforming Paris.

The bicycle imperative derives from Paris' extreme population density. It is the most densely populated city in Europe, and more so than Manhattan or New Delhi. Kupar, who grew up in the bicycle friendly Netherlands, is an enthusiastic supporter of the bike takeover of Paris. But many car-drivers are incensed by bikes and see them as another example of the dangerous “wokeism” that is invading France.

Doing business in Paris

Paris is exploiting business opportunities. It has benefited from Brexit, the UK withdrawal from the European Union. Brexit makes it harder to do business with the UK. Macron and his government have been attracting bankers to Paris, who prefer the “city of light” to Germany’s Frankfurt.

But they do not want Paris to become like London, a city of plutocrats, with housing which is too expensive for ordinary folks. One measure they are undertaking is increasing social housing in Intramuros from 25 to 35 percent of total.

Many anglo saxon business people look down on France as being socialistic, with a heavy hand of the state. Kupar reminds us that over the past decade, Paris has become a luxury city. Three of the five biggest European companies are French, and work in the luxury sector – LVMH, Chanel and Christian Dior. Paris is also attracting luxury talent from all sorts of countries. Paris has become more of a luxury centre than a financial centre.

In France, business is conducted over a restaurant meal, unlike London and New York – so never turn down a luncheon invitation. But Paris’ highly developed food and drink culture reflects it having a low trust society. Eating together is a way of building trust. Trust among traditional elites comes from childhood relations or having attended a “grande ecole” (an elite university) together. And if this does not apply to you, it is the restaurant table where you forge trust.

France’s political turmoil

Kuper’s book offers a wonderful story of Paris. But it does not explore the burgeoning political turmoil and ungovernability of France, and how that could impact the world’s most beautiful city.

There was little sign of political dysfunction when Emmanuel Macron won the French presidency in 2017 – although the fact that he could almost single handedly sweep aside all other contenders for the presidency implies that there may be something wrong in France.

Macron was greatly supported by Parisian urban elites and those who are doing well. And there were great hopes that a young, dynamic and intelligent president could reform and restore hope to the “Hexagon”. But these hopes did not last.

Beginning in 2018 France was paralysed by the Yellow Vests Protests (Mouvement des gilets jaunes), a series of populist, grassroots weekly protests that was initially motivated by rising crude oil and fuel prices, a high cost of living, and economic inequality.

Macron was decisively reelected in 2022. But the first round of the parliamentary elections revealed the political fractures of France. First round votes were fairly evenly split between the extreme right, extreme left and Macron’s centre right Renaissance party.

In the legislative elections which followed the presidential election, Macron’s Party remained the largest bloc in the National Assembly but lost its ruling majority. This resulted in the formation of France's first minority government since 1993, and made life difficult for Macron.

A government trying to survive

Things only became more troubled for Macron at the European parliamentary election in 2024 when over 30 percent of French voters voted for the far right wing party, the National Rally, while only 15 percent voted for Macron’s party. In response, Macron dissolved the National Assembly, triggering a snap election, hoping to grab back control.

The left-wing New Popular Front alliance came out on top in the National Assembly elections, but fell short of a majority. Macron’s centrist alliance came in second place. Macron then named a new (minority) government, led by the centre-right Michel Barnier, with a Cabinet dominated by conservatives and centrists. Needless to say, the left thought that Macron had stolen the election, and widespread discontent was provoked, with many arguing that it was just a matter of time before this new government would fall.

Barnier’s first major task is the 2025 budget plan which must deal with public finances – budget deficit and government debt – which are in a mess. As of writing, the government is staring into the abyss, as it fights with other parliamentary parties over its proposed budget which includes tax increases and spending cuts. It seems very possible that this government will soon fall, and a less centrist one be appointed.

It is over 2 years away from France's next presidential elections (April 2027). It is highly likely that France will suffer from political instability until then. And it is very possible that a candidate from the far-right party (National Rally) will win those elections. According to one poll, the National Rally’s Marine Le Pen is the most popular figure to succeed Emmanuel Macron as president. And the resurrection of Donald Trump in the US may encourage French voters to take their chances, as far-right politics progressively become the new normal in the West.

Conclusion

France’s political problems are related to Paris. Macron enjoys support from the Parisian elite. But the Parisian political elite is seen as arrogant and out of touch with the rest of France, and are a subject of national derision. Macron’s business friendly policy reforms do not seem to have been felt on the ground. In fact, part of the support for the far right and left in the provinces is indeed a reaction against Paris. And this far right and left blocks reform and repairing public finances, bringing grief to all of France, but especially Paris.

Sadly France’s national political turmoil could well undermine the Parisian economy, disturb financial markets, and discourage business investment and tourist arrivals – at a time when Paris has so much going for it.

The consequences could be dramatic because the Parisian region is in reality the heart of the French economy. With about 19 percent of the French population, it produces some 31 percent of the nation’s GDP and accounts for 41 percent of R&D spending notably in tech.

The lesson seems simple. National governments must govern for the whole country, not capital cities dominated by elites. They must work to prevent the rise of disenfranchised extremist social groups and hold a country together. At the same time, France still needs much economic reform to lift productivity and improve people’s lives.

In sum, reforming the economy and keeping society on board at the same time is Frane’s holy grail!