ASIA
24 November 2024
Trump’s threat to freedom and democracy
President Trump’s re-election represents a grave threat to American liberal democracy.
The re-election to the American presidency of Donald Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement could represent the most important threat to American freedom since the Civil War. This was foreshadowed by Robert Kagan in his excellent book Rebellion: How Antiliberalism Is Tearing America Apart – Again (published in April 2024, before the 5 November election).
The counties that Trump won only represent 40 percent of US GDP, whereas Harris countries represent some 60 percent, according to Brookings. Trump’s GDP rating is up from 29 percent in the 2020 presidential context between Biden and Trump.
Trump made important inroads into the Democratic vote among young, Latino and black voters. Consistent with medium term trends, Harris had a majority of the votes by women, blacks, under 30s, and college graduates. Trump had majorities among the following voting groups – male, whites, 45-64 age, and no college degree.
Many reasons have been proposed for Trump’s strong performance. Notwithstanding the strong US economy under Biden, many people have not felt or benefited from this. Inflation and cost living are widely cited factors. The Gaza war may have affected the Muslim vote, and the Ukraine war may be perceived as an expensive luxury in highly indebted America. Disruptive technological changes and a sense of a loss of control may have fuelled popular anxiety.
Beyond these factors, Harris was perceived as a weak candidate. Many Americans do not agree with her “woke” policy priorities, especially on migration. Biden's late withdrawal from the election prevented the Democrats from going through the primary process to find a good candidate. Trump is a unique figure in history who is able to connect with voters, even though he does not have a serious programme to address their concerns.
In a divided and frustrated country, an anti-incumbency vote may have been natural.The last decades have seen presidential electoral results swing from left to right and back again, a reflection of an unhappy and frustrated America – since George W. Bush’s administration which saw the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the global financial crisis, and rising inequality.
The Trump movement began in 2011, when he ran for president for the first time. Before he withdrew, he had been leading the polls with a campaign based on one plank, namely “birtherism”. Without any evidence, he claimed that America’s first black president Barack Obama was not born in the US, and was not really an American.
This claim obviously appealed to white, protestant Americans who were upset that a black American, of African origin, should become their president. Ever since Trump’s popularity among white protestant Americans has been rising – even while this group’s share of the national population is declining.
In the words of the Declaration of Independence, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed”.
In principle, people have individual rights vis-a-vis the government, the community, and all kinds of hierarchies. These rights apply to everyone. In a Trump world of a white protestant American nation, a vast array of groups – African Americans, migrants, LGBTQ, Muslims and others – cannot expect their rights respected.
However, it was hoped that over time the liberal principles would gradually deepen and broaden in society and that people's behaviour would come to match the principles. Nevertheless, Southern slaveholders remained in disagreement with the Declaration of Independence. In their view, the idea of equality was wrong.
Despite losing the Civil War, Southerners did not change their views. Indeed, the Ku Klux Klan, an American white supremacist, far-right terrorist organization and hate group, was formed in the wake of the Civil War. And for those seeking a link between the economy and anti-liberalism, it is instructive that the Ku Klux Klan flourished in the “Roaring Twenties”. A strong economy did not help liberal principles.
Kagan argues that the liberal principles enunciated in the Declaration of Independence were a radical revolutionary shift from everything that had come before. The recognition of universal individual rights was not an inheritance from the Enlightenment in Europe. It was brand new. In England at the time, only Protestants had rights. Catholics did not have rights in England at the time of the American Revolution, and indeed not until well into the 19th century.
Wallace unsuccessfully sought the United States presidency as a Democratic Party candidate three times, and once as an American Independent Party candidate. Curiously, his uncouth behaviour seemed to have been part of his popular appeal.
Another prominent anti-liberal figure was Benjamin Tillman who served as governor of South Carolina from 1890 to 1894, and as a US Senator from 1895 until his death in 1918. He was a white supremacist who opposed civil rights for black Americans. He led a paramilitary group of Red Shirts during South Carolina's violent 1876 election. On the floor of the US Senate, he defended lynching, and frequently ridiculed black Americans in his speeches, boasting of having helped kill them during that campaign.
However, Kagan concludes that liberalism is never triumphant, it is always under siege. Those who favour the liberal principles in the Declaration of Independence have always faced opposition of one kind or another from those harbouring anti-liberal beliefs, and who prefer to see America as a fundamentally white protestant nation.
There is something fundamentally unnatural about liberalism according to Kagen. You are supposed to care about people who look nothing like you, and who don't think the way that you do. You are supposed to care that they have as many rights as you do. Kagan is not sure it's a normal human attitude, so that it's easy to slip back.
Moreover, liberalism is fundamentally destructive of tradition. It tends to erode hierarchies and traditions of all kinds. Those people who were holding onto the traditions that they had always known, can feel like they're losing their country.
Kagan suggests that “status anxiety” may be relevant. This applies to white protestant people who were used to a certain stature in society. They then suffer from status anxiety when having to adjust to a new reality where other societal groups were raising themselves up in the system thanks to the liberal principles (like equality before the law), and demanding respect as part of the American family. As the relative position of white protestants in the social pecking order changed, huge resentments built up.
Anti-liberalism is in fact on the rise in many countries, often due to anti-migration sentiments. But Kagan insists that most countries’ situations are unique. The American situation is very special by virtue of the inclusion of liberalism in the Declaration of Independence. But also because race is such a dominant, dominant issue in a way that it is not in other countries. You cannot understand American history without recourse to the racial issue.
And yet, some Hispanics and African Americans are now supporting Trump. How so? It may be a case like the Italian and Irish immigrants who were treated badly back in the 19th century. Once they integrated into society, they became part of the white majority. In other words, while they needed liberalism, they were liberals. But once they have made it, their fervour for liberalism faded away.
Liberals believed that over time, with education, everyone will come to believe in liberalism, because it's right. Indeed, Francis Fukuyama said that liberalism is the final destination of human beings. But as we’ve discovered globally, but also domestically in the US that the battle of ideas is never over. People have not in fact necessarily embraced liberal goals, and in fact many people are looking to overthrow a system based on this kind of liberalism. As we saw in the 1930s, when people lost faith in liberalism and democracy, and fascism seemed like the wave of the future, it is possible to go backwards. Progress is not inevitable.
Is there a solution to the rise of anti-liberalism? Kagan preaches improved civil education, many Americans simply do not know their own history. He also advocates greater political activism. But many people are lulled into complacency and are happy to not get involved because they feel that they will be immune to the costs of anti-liberalism. Another potential saviour could be demographics, as America’s white protestant population is in structural decline.
But at the moment, the situation looks bleak.
US presidential election results
Donald Trump won 49.9 percent of the popular vote with 76.9 million votes compared with Kamala Harris’ 48.3 percent of the vote with 74.4 million votes. Trump won 312 Electoral College seats against 226 for Harris. This result is widely considered to be a landslide, and a humiliating setback for the Democratic Party – notwithstanding Trump’s razor-thin victory margin for the popular vote.The counties that Trump won only represent 40 percent of US GDP, whereas Harris countries represent some 60 percent, according to Brookings. Trump’s GDP rating is up from 29 percent in the 2020 presidential context between Biden and Trump.
Trump made important inroads into the Democratic vote among young, Latino and black voters. Consistent with medium term trends, Harris had a majority of the votes by women, blacks, under 30s, and college graduates. Trump had majorities among the following voting groups – male, whites, 45-64 age, and no college degree.
Many reasons have been proposed for Trump’s strong performance. Notwithstanding the strong US economy under Biden, many people have not felt or benefited from this. Inflation and cost living are widely cited factors. The Gaza war may have affected the Muslim vote, and the Ukraine war may be perceived as an expensive luxury in highly indebted America. Disruptive technological changes and a sense of a loss of control may have fuelled popular anxiety.
Beyond these factors, Harris was perceived as a weak candidate. Many Americans do not agree with her “woke” policy priorities, especially on migration. Biden's late withdrawal from the election prevented the Democrats from going through the primary process to find a good candidate. Trump is a unique figure in history who is able to connect with voters, even though he does not have a serious programme to address their concerns.
In a divided and frustrated country, an anti-incumbency vote may have been natural.The last decades have seen presidential electoral results swing from left to right and back again, a reflection of an unhappy and frustrated America – since George W. Bush’s administration which saw the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the global financial crisis, and rising inequality.
Understanding the Trump movement
Nevertheless, as Kagan wrote, the core of the “Trump movement” is white, protestants from across the working class, lower middle class, upper middle class and upper class people – not concentrated among lower income people. Trump appeals directly to his base when he says that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.” In sum, the Trump movement is committed to an ethno-religious definition of America, namely a white, protestant nation.The Trump movement began in 2011, when he ran for president for the first time. Before he withdrew, he had been leading the polls with a campaign based on one plank, namely “birtherism”. Without any evidence, he claimed that America’s first black president Barack Obama was not born in the US, and was not really an American.
This claim obviously appealed to white, protestant Americans who were upset that a black American, of African origin, should become their president. Ever since Trump’s popularity among white protestant Americans has been rising – even while this group’s share of the national population is declining.
Origin of American liberalism
This rise of the Trump movement is only the latest assault on the “liberalism” elaborated in the US Declaration of Independence. This liberalism means that all human beings are born with individual rights and that one role of government is to protect those rights, inspired by the philosophy of John Locke.In the words of the Declaration of Independence, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed”.
In principle, people have individual rights vis-a-vis the government, the community, and all kinds of hierarchies. These rights apply to everyone. In a Trump world of a white protestant American nation, a vast array of groups – African Americans, migrants, LGBTQ, Muslims and others – cannot expect their rights respected.
Historic threats to American liberalism
Long before Trump, American liberalism was often under threat. Kagan highlights the great paradoxes or hypocrisies of the American republic. From the very beginning there was a strong dissent about liberalism, notably from slave owners. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson were well aware of their hypocrisy, that holding slaves was a violation of the very principles of the Declaration of Independence.However, it was hoped that over time the liberal principles would gradually deepen and broaden in society and that people's behaviour would come to match the principles. Nevertheless, Southern slaveholders remained in disagreement with the Declaration of Independence. In their view, the idea of equality was wrong.
Despite losing the Civil War, Southerners did not change their views. Indeed, the Ku Klux Klan, an American white supremacist, far-right terrorist organization and hate group, was formed in the wake of the Civil War. And for those seeking a link between the economy and anti-liberalism, it is instructive that the Ku Klux Klan flourished in the “Roaring Twenties”. A strong economy did not help liberal principles.
Kagan argues that the liberal principles enunciated in the Declaration of Independence were a radical revolutionary shift from everything that had come before. The recognition of universal individual rights was not an inheritance from the Enlightenment in Europe. It was brand new. In England at the time, only Protestants had rights. Catholics did not have rights in England at the time of the American Revolution, and indeed not until well into the 19th century.
Anti-liberal leaders
There have been many notable anti-liberal leaders in American history. George Wallace was a leading antiliberal figure, serving three terms as governor of Alabama between 1963 and 1987. He is remembered for his staunch segregationist and populist views. He opposed desegregation and supported the policies of "Jim Crow" during the Civil Rights Movement, declaring in his very controversial 1963 inaugural address that he stood for "segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever".Wallace unsuccessfully sought the United States presidency as a Democratic Party candidate three times, and once as an American Independent Party candidate. Curiously, his uncouth behaviour seemed to have been part of his popular appeal.
Another prominent anti-liberal figure was Benjamin Tillman who served as governor of South Carolina from 1890 to 1894, and as a US Senator from 1895 until his death in 1918. He was a white supremacist who opposed civil rights for black Americans. He led a paramilitary group of Red Shirts during South Carolina's violent 1876 election. On the floor of the US Senate, he defended lynching, and frequently ridiculed black Americans in his speeches, boasting of having helped kill them during that campaign.
Fragile explosion of liberalism
Kagan argues that the first half of the 20th century saw an explosion of liberalism due to some tangible factors. First, enormous immigration from the late 19th century led to these new people demanding their rights. Second, the Great Depression wiped out conservative republicanism as an ideology, for a while. Third, World War 2 and Nazism discredited the racism that was dominant in America in the 1920s. Fourth, the contribution of women and racial minorities to the war effort broke down barriers.However, Kagan concludes that liberalism is never triumphant, it is always under siege. Those who favour the liberal principles in the Declaration of Independence have always faced opposition of one kind or another from those harbouring anti-liberal beliefs, and who prefer to see America as a fundamentally white protestant nation.
There is something fundamentally unnatural about liberalism according to Kagen. You are supposed to care about people who look nothing like you, and who don't think the way that you do. You are supposed to care that they have as many rights as you do. Kagan is not sure it's a normal human attitude, so that it's easy to slip back.
Moreover, liberalism is fundamentally destructive of tradition. It tends to erode hierarchies and traditions of all kinds. Those people who were holding onto the traditions that they had always known, can feel like they're losing their country.
Renewed threats for liberalism
Since the late 1960s, Kagan argues that the US has seen a retrenchment in liberalism. Some people like Nobel-prize winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz, argue that the rise of anti-liberalism is due to income inequality, the global financial crisis, or US foreign policy. All of these things may indeed be playing a role. But from a broader historical perspective, anti-liberal movements have arisen under all kinds of economic circumstances.Kagan suggests that “status anxiety” may be relevant. This applies to white protestant people who were used to a certain stature in society. They then suffer from status anxiety when having to adjust to a new reality where other societal groups were raising themselves up in the system thanks to the liberal principles (like equality before the law), and demanding respect as part of the American family. As the relative position of white protestants in the social pecking order changed, huge resentments built up.
Anti-liberalism is in fact on the rise in many countries, often due to anti-migration sentiments. But Kagan insists that most countries’ situations are unique. The American situation is very special by virtue of the inclusion of liberalism in the Declaration of Independence. But also because race is such a dominant, dominant issue in a way that it is not in other countries. You cannot understand American history without recourse to the racial issue.
And yet, some Hispanics and African Americans are now supporting Trump. How so? It may be a case like the Italian and Irish immigrants who were treated badly back in the 19th century. Once they integrated into society, they became part of the white majority. In other words, while they needed liberalism, they were liberals. But once they have made it, their fervour for liberalism faded away.
Trump and the anti-liberal tradition
Kagan argues that, viewed from an historical perspective, the Trump movement is no freakish aberration. The political struggle between liberal and anti-liberal forces dates back to the founding of the nation. Those who favour the liberal principles in the Declaration of Independence have frequently faced opposition of one kind or another from those harbouring anti-liberal beliefs preferring to see America still as a fundamentally white protestant nation.Liberals believed that over time, with education, everyone will come to believe in liberalism, because it's right. Indeed, Francis Fukuyama said that liberalism is the final destination of human beings. But as we’ve discovered globally, but also domestically in the US that the battle of ideas is never over. People have not in fact necessarily embraced liberal goals, and in fact many people are looking to overthrow a system based on this kind of liberalism. As we saw in the 1930s, when people lost faith in liberalism and democracy, and fascism seemed like the wave of the future, it is possible to go backwards. Progress is not inevitable.
Conclusion
The re-election of Trump may pose the greatest challenge to American liberalism and democracy since the Civil War. People like Trump, Wallace and Tillman are clearly in “rebellion” against the norms of society, and appeal to those who don't like the way that society is evolving. Kagan regards Trump as a "wrecker". He is not the creator of anything, nor a builder or a thinker. It is precisely his role as a wrecker that so many people are finding attractive. The more outrageous he is, the more they like him.Is there a solution to the rise of anti-liberalism? Kagan preaches improved civil education, many Americans simply do not know their own history. He also advocates greater political activism. But many people are lulled into complacency and are happy to not get involved because they feel that they will be immune to the costs of anti-liberalism. Another potential saviour could be demographics, as America’s white protestant population is in structural decline.
But at the moment, the situation looks bleak.