INDIA
12 July 2024
How healthy is India's democracy
Have India's recent elections breathed fresh life into India’s flagging democracy?
Elections jolted the ambitions of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling party. But they may have breathed fresh life into India’s flagging democracy.
For some years now, the democratic West has been keen to adopt India as a partner in its geopolitical competition with China. At the same time, it has been troubled by Indian politics and their authoritarian turn under the leadership of Narendra Modi.
In the Indian national elections, which took place between 19 April and 1 June 2024, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the world’s biggest political party, unexpectedly lost seats and its absolute majority, although Modi will still lead India in a coalition government.
These election results suggest that some Indians are also troubled by Modi’s authoritarian turn, and that democracy may still be alive in India. The country is frequently referred to as the world’s biggest democracy. But it is very much an open question how democratic India really is.
Many political scientists once considered that free and open elections were the essence of democracy. But with countries like Russia holding shonky elections, most political scientists now consider “democracy” a much broader concept. And classifying countries as democracies is not a black-and-white binary exercise. The quality of a country’s democracy can vary enormously.
Maya Tudor, associate professor of politics and public policy at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, has identified a number of elements essential to democracy including: genuine multi-party competition, broad societal participation, civil liberties, free media, independent electoral administration and civilian rule over the military.
A number of international organisations attempt to measure democracy in this spirit: the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute, based at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden; Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) with its Democracy Report; Freedom House; and Reporters Without Borders.
The judiciary also seems to function with some independence. In March 2023, Rahul Gandhi, the de facto leader of the Indian National Congress party, the main opposition group, was disqualified from his seat in Parliament and received a two-year prison term for defaming Prime Minister Modi.
The Supreme Court suspended that conviction and Gandhi was able to return to his parliamentary seat in August 2023.
But all the main assessments of Indian democracy suggest that India has deep problems beyond its electoral system, and that things have deteriorated over the past decade.
And things have only deteriorated under Modi’s BJP government. In its report “Democracy Winning and Losing at the Ballot” the V-Dem Institute said that Modi had silenced critics through laws on sedition, defamation and counterterrorism. His government continues to suppress the freedom of religion rights, with Muslims being particular victims.
The EIU classifies India as a “flawed democracy”, with a ranking of 41 of the 167 countries covered. India scores relatively well for its electoral process and pluralism, and functioning of government, but much less well for its civil liberties and political culture. Indeed, its civil liberties score declined when it failed to protect minority rights amid inter-ethnic violence in 2023 in the northeastern state of Manipur.
Freedom House downgraded India from “free” to “partly free” in 2021. It notes that Modi’s government has presided over discriminatory policies and a rise in persecution affecting Muslims. Further, harassment of journalists, NGOs and other government critics has increased significantly under Modi.
India would be one of the worst countries in the world for press freedom, according to Reporters Without Borders which ranks India 159 out of 180 countries. They note that “with violence against journalists, highly concentrated media ownership and political alignment, press freedom is in crisis in ‘the world’s largest democracy’”.
In that context, the United States would no longer be a full democracy according to the EIU, which has classified it as a “flawed democracy” since 2016, with its current ranking at 29 out of the 167 countries surveyed. The EIU is concerned about the presidential electoral contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and warns that “a country that was once a beacon of democracy is likely to slide deeper into division and disenchantment.”
It is also important to stress that India has a young democracy. It only became independent in 1947. And its constitution only came into force in 1950. In contrast, democracy in the United States has developed over more than two centuries.
As a newly-formed country, India has also had to cope with instability on its borders, starting with the bloody Partition with Pakistan at independence and the continuing troubled relations, the 1962 war with China and ongoing tense relations and the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War on India’s border, along with internal secessionist movements.
There have also been bouts of domestic political instability, most notably when then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi declared a State of Emergency from 1975 to 77, a dark period in Indian history.
The status of Kashmir has also been a source of instability. And until the rise of Modi, Indian politics were dominated by one party, the Indian National Congress, which is still the main opposition party. The Congress is essentially the dynasty of India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
All that said, it is in many ways a miracle that India, a country with a very low level of socioeconomic development and immense cultural and linguistic diversity should become and remain a democracy.
Virtually all the world’s democracies have advanced economies; economic development usually fosters democracy, whose openness can then further strengthen the economy.
India does not have an advanced economy. It may often be looked upon as an emerging world power, with its total GDP being ranked fifth highest in the world, behind only the United States, China, Germany and Japan.
But this high ranking is mainly due to its enormous population of 1.4 billion, now the highest in the world. Its GDP per capita, a broad measure of productivity and living standards, is only $2731 USD, giving it a ranking of 136th in the world. This compares with $85,373 for the United States and $13,136 for China.
After the decisive victories in the 2014 and 2019 elections, Indian strongman Narendra Modi and his BJP Party were expected to dominate the general election on 1 June 2024. They targeted winning more than 400 seats in the 543-member lower house — this would have been an even bigger majority than in 2014 or 2019.
But BJP won just 240 seats and lost 63 seats, although it only suffered a fractional decline in its share of the overall vote. The BJP and Modi will still be able to govern, but only in a coalition which will involve compromises and more democratic policy making.
There is much speculation about what could have gone wrong for Modi and the BJP. Discriminatory actions against opposition politicians may have ultimately backfired. Despite the hype, the economy is not performing very well, with unemployment, inflation and inequality being particular problems.
The appeal of Hindu chauvinism and nationalism may be fading; improving the economy and living standards might be more important now to more people. Voters may also have been reluctant to give the BJP the two-thirds parliamentary majority which would enable it to change the Constitution.
Additionally, the opposition, led by the Congress Party with vigorous campaigning by Rahul Gandhi, led a smarter and better-organised campaign.
Looking ahead, the clipping of Modi’s authoritarian wings can only be for the good of Indian pluralistic democracy and India’s incredibly diverse society. Modi will surely be forced to ease up on his repressive and discriminatory policies. These changes may also be good for the economy.
Modi is now a diminished figure and it is less likely that the BJP will keep him as leader for a fourth term, especially given his current age of 73. For the moment at least, he will require a more consensual style of leadership. But predicting the behaviour of the mercurial Narendra Modi is a hazardous exercise.
Despite the results of the recent election, India remains a long way from having a full and mature democracy. Many of the concerns expressed by the V-Dem Institute, the Economist Intelligence Unit and Freedom House remain. History shows that democratisation and democratic institution building require a long and winding road. And there are certain to be many more bumps along it.
But the recent election can only give us hope that the roots of Indian democracy are deep and resilient. And it is heartening that it is India that is bucking a trend of the past decade away from democratic principles.
For some years now, the democratic West has been keen to adopt India as a partner in its geopolitical competition with China. At the same time, it has been troubled by Indian politics and their authoritarian turn under the leadership of Narendra Modi.
In the Indian national elections, which took place between 19 April and 1 June 2024, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the world’s biggest political party, unexpectedly lost seats and its absolute majority, although Modi will still lead India in a coalition government.
These election results suggest that some Indians are also troubled by Modi’s authoritarian turn, and that democracy may still be alive in India. The country is frequently referred to as the world’s biggest democracy. But it is very much an open question how democratic India really is.
What do we mean by democracy?
Abraham Lincoln described democracy as a system of government that is “of the people, by the people, and for the people”. “Demos” is a word from ancient Greece, often thought to be the birthplace of democracy, which means populace or the common people.Many political scientists once considered that free and open elections were the essence of democracy. But with countries like Russia holding shonky elections, most political scientists now consider “democracy” a much broader concept. And classifying countries as democracies is not a black-and-white binary exercise. The quality of a country’s democracy can vary enormously.
Maya Tudor, associate professor of politics and public policy at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, has identified a number of elements essential to democracy including: genuine multi-party competition, broad societal participation, civil liberties, free media, independent electoral administration and civilian rule over the military.
A number of international organisations attempt to measure democracy in this spirit: the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute, based at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden; Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) with its Democracy Report; Freedom House; and Reporters Without Borders.
Indian democracy
While India scores relatively poorly on the overall quality of its democracy, it has a functioning electoral system. Indeed, the surprisingly weak performance of the BJP in the recent elections suggests that Indian elections function relatively efficiently — something which is not the case in a country like Russia where elections produce no surprises.The judiciary also seems to function with some independence. In March 2023, Rahul Gandhi, the de facto leader of the Indian National Congress party, the main opposition group, was disqualified from his seat in Parliament and received a two-year prison term for defaming Prime Minister Modi.
The Supreme Court suspended that conviction and Gandhi was able to return to his parliamentary seat in August 2023.
But all the main assessments of Indian democracy suggest that India has deep problems beyond its electoral system, and that things have deteriorated over the past decade.
The quality of India’s democracy
India is no longer a democracy according to the V-Dem Institute. It dropped down to an “electoral autocracy” in 2018, and it ranks 104 out of the 179 countries reviewed. V-Dem writes that India’s process of “autocratisation” began in earnest from 2008, even before Modi’s 2014 election as Prime Minister.And things have only deteriorated under Modi’s BJP government. In its report “Democracy Winning and Losing at the Ballot” the V-Dem Institute said that Modi had silenced critics through laws on sedition, defamation and counterterrorism. His government continues to suppress the freedom of religion rights, with Muslims being particular victims.
The EIU classifies India as a “flawed democracy”, with a ranking of 41 of the 167 countries covered. India scores relatively well for its electoral process and pluralism, and functioning of government, but much less well for its civil liberties and political culture. Indeed, its civil liberties score declined when it failed to protect minority rights amid inter-ethnic violence in 2023 in the northeastern state of Manipur.
Freedom House downgraded India from “free” to “partly free” in 2021. It notes that Modi’s government has presided over discriminatory policies and a rise in persecution affecting Muslims. Further, harassment of journalists, NGOs and other government critics has increased significantly under Modi.
India would be one of the worst countries in the world for press freedom, according to Reporters Without Borders which ranks India 159 out of 180 countries. They note that “with violence against journalists, highly concentrated media ownership and political alignment, press freedom is in crisis in ‘the world’s largest democracy’”.
Indian democracy in context
Most importantly, India is not alone in experiencing a negative trend in its democracy over the past decade. Political scientists like Larry Diamond, the founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, argue that for most of the last decade, democracy has been in a global recession.In that context, the United States would no longer be a full democracy according to the EIU, which has classified it as a “flawed democracy” since 2016, with its current ranking at 29 out of the 167 countries surveyed. The EIU is concerned about the presidential electoral contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and warns that “a country that was once a beacon of democracy is likely to slide deeper into division and disenchantment.”
It is also important to stress that India has a young democracy. It only became independent in 1947. And its constitution only came into force in 1950. In contrast, democracy in the United States has developed over more than two centuries.
As a newly-formed country, India has also had to cope with instability on its borders, starting with the bloody Partition with Pakistan at independence and the continuing troubled relations, the 1962 war with China and ongoing tense relations and the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War on India’s border, along with internal secessionist movements.
There have also been bouts of domestic political instability, most notably when then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi declared a State of Emergency from 1975 to 77, a dark period in Indian history.
The status of Kashmir has also been a source of instability. And until the rise of Modi, Indian politics were dominated by one party, the Indian National Congress, which is still the main opposition party. The Congress is essentially the dynasty of India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
All that said, it is in many ways a miracle that India, a country with a very low level of socioeconomic development and immense cultural and linguistic diversity should become and remain a democracy.
Virtually all the world’s democracies have advanced economies; economic development usually fosters democracy, whose openness can then further strengthen the economy.
India does not have an advanced economy. It may often be looked upon as an emerging world power, with its total GDP being ranked fifth highest in the world, behind only the United States, China, Germany and Japan.
But this high ranking is mainly due to its enormous population of 1.4 billion, now the highest in the world. Its GDP per capita, a broad measure of productivity and living standards, is only $2731 USD, giving it a ranking of 136th in the world. This compares with $85,373 for the United States and $13,136 for China.
India’s recent elections
After the decisive victories in the 2014 and 2019 elections, Indian strongman Narendra Modi and his BJP Party were expected to dominate the general election on 1 June 2024. They targeted winning more than 400 seats in the 543-member lower house — this would have been an even bigger majority than in 2014 or 2019.
But BJP won just 240 seats and lost 63 seats, although it only suffered a fractional decline in its share of the overall vote. The BJP and Modi will still be able to govern, but only in a coalition which will involve compromises and more democratic policy making.
There is much speculation about what could have gone wrong for Modi and the BJP. Discriminatory actions against opposition politicians may have ultimately backfired. Despite the hype, the economy is not performing very well, with unemployment, inflation and inequality being particular problems.
The appeal of Hindu chauvinism and nationalism may be fading; improving the economy and living standards might be more important now to more people. Voters may also have been reluctant to give the BJP the two-thirds parliamentary majority which would enable it to change the Constitution.
Additionally, the opposition, led by the Congress Party with vigorous campaigning by Rahul Gandhi, led a smarter and better-organised campaign.
Looking ahead, the clipping of Modi’s authoritarian wings can only be for the good of Indian pluralistic democracy and India’s incredibly diverse society. Modi will surely be forced to ease up on his repressive and discriminatory policies. These changes may also be good for the economy.
Modi is now a diminished figure and it is less likely that the BJP will keep him as leader for a fourth term, especially given his current age of 73. For the moment at least, he will require a more consensual style of leadership. But predicting the behaviour of the mercurial Narendra Modi is a hazardous exercise.
Despite the results of the recent election, India remains a long way from having a full and mature democracy. Many of the concerns expressed by the V-Dem Institute, the Economist Intelligence Unit and Freedom House remain. History shows that democratisation and democratic institution building require a long and winding road. And there are certain to be many more bumps along it.
But the recent election can only give us hope that the roots of Indian democracy are deep and resilient. And it is heartening that it is India that is bucking a trend of the past decade away from democratic principles.