CHINA
22 March 2014
Re-shoring - how China is risking its future
Professor Julian Lindley-French has shared with us this fascinating blog post on how China is risking its future.
Professor Julian Lindley-French has shared with us this fascinating blog post on how China is risking its future.
Here it is:
British PR-Meister David Cameron was in Beijing this week selling Britain to the Chinese. No, I mean literally selling Britain to the Chinese.
I think he got about twenty quid for Scotland, which to my mind is far too much, especially as come next September they could well be offering themselves to anyone for next to nothing.
He also promised to raise the issue of human rights with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Given how desperate Dave is for money, one can imagine the conversation.
Desperate for dodgy dosh Dave: "So, Li, how are human rights doing in China?”
Li: “Fine”. Dave: “Good. How much will you give me for Manchester? Thirty quid and I will throw in free delivery.”
Dave is not great with timing. As he was selling Britain, China was unilaterally deepening its dangerous dispute with Japan (and by extension the US) by declaring air space sovereignty over the disputed Daioyu/Senkaku islands.
By adding Britain to its now extensive collection of Europeans desperate for Chinese money, it would thus be easy to conclude Beijing has neatly split and neutered the old West.
So, has China pulled off a strategic masterstroke?
No. In fact China’s creeping and burgeoning assertive nationalism is in danger of putting at risk the very thing that has made China rich – globalisation.
China has become rich precisely because of the relatively stable international order the West, mainly the Americans, created. In spite of efforts to boost domestic demand, the enormous developmental challenges China faces (town/country split, ageing population etc. etc. etc.) China is more a developing power than superpower.
China will need to export for years to come. Given that, the last thing that the Chinese economy needs is strategic turbulence, and yet that is precisely what China is creating.
The disputed islands are like small pebbles dropped into an enormous strategic pool causing ripples across the world.
What could be that impact?
Re-shoring is the simple answer. On November 25th the Financial Times ran a piece in which it said, “One in six UK companies has brought production back over the past year, or is in the process of doing so, suggesting re-shoring is starting to gain traction. The number of companies returning production from countries such as China is outstripping those moving output overseas according to a survey of more than 500 small and medium-sized companies”.
As for Manchester. Thirty quid? You must be joking. Five at best and you can collect it yourself. Bring a bag.
His new book, "Little Britain? Twenty-First Century Strategy for a Middling European Power", will be published in January 2014.
Here it is:
British PR-Meister David Cameron was in Beijing this week selling Britain to the Chinese. No, I mean literally selling Britain to the Chinese.
I think he got about twenty quid for Scotland, which to my mind is far too much, especially as come next September they could well be offering themselves to anyone for next to nothing.
He also promised to raise the issue of human rights with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Given how desperate Dave is for money, one can imagine the conversation.
Desperate for dodgy dosh Dave: "So, Li, how are human rights doing in China?”
Li: “Fine”. Dave: “Good. How much will you give me for Manchester? Thirty quid and I will throw in free delivery.”
Dave is not great with timing. As he was selling Britain, China was unilaterally deepening its dangerous dispute with Japan (and by extension the US) by declaring air space sovereignty over the disputed Daioyu/Senkaku islands.
By adding Britain to its now extensive collection of Europeans desperate for Chinese money, it would thus be easy to conclude Beijing has neatly split and neutered the old West.
So, has China pulled off a strategic masterstroke?
No. In fact China’s creeping and burgeoning assertive nationalism is in danger of putting at risk the very thing that has made China rich – globalisation.
China has become rich precisely because of the relatively stable international order the West, mainly the Americans, created. In spite of efforts to boost domestic demand, the enormous developmental challenges China faces (town/country split, ageing population etc. etc. etc.) China is more a developing power than superpower.
China will need to export for years to come. Given that, the last thing that the Chinese economy needs is strategic turbulence, and yet that is precisely what China is creating.
The disputed islands are like small pebbles dropped into an enormous strategic pool causing ripples across the world.
What could be that impact?
Re-shoring is the simple answer. On November 25th the Financial Times ran a piece in which it said, “One in six UK companies has brought production back over the past year, or is in the process of doing so, suggesting re-shoring is starting to gain traction. The number of companies returning production from countries such as China is outstripping those moving output overseas according to a survey of more than 500 small and medium-sized companies”.
As for Manchester. Thirty quid? You must be joking. Five at best and you can collect it yourself. Bring a bag.
Acknowledgements
Professor Julian Lindley-French is Senior Fellow, Institute of Statecraft and Director, Europa Analytica.His new book, "Little Britain? Twenty-First Century Strategy for a Middling European Power", will be published in January 2014.