INDIA
21 August 2025
Donald Trump punishes India
Seemingly out of the blue, Donald Trump's America has turned on India. Other allies and friends should beware.
As Donald Trump’s administration uses its trade war to punish friend and foe alike, perhaps one of the most shocking victims is India, until now a close strategic partner of the US.
The US and India would seem to have so much in common. They are both led by strongmen with enormous egos, nationalist and populist discourses, and little interest in democratic values. And Narendra Modi’s India has been seen as a key partner for the US in its geopolitical tussle with China.
Modi has also been very active pandering to Trump’s fragile ego. Trump was the guest of honour at a “Howdy, Modi!” gathering of 50,000 Indian Americans in Texas in 2019 on the occasion of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the US. This was followed up during Trump’s visit to India by a “Namaste Trump” rally in 2020 at Ahmedabad, Gujarat which attracted over 100,000 people.
And what’s more, Trump’s America has reached out and proposed cooperation with India’s longtime adversary, Pakistan. “We are eager to explore new economic collaboration opportunities, such as in critical minerals and hydrocarbons, and to encourage vibrant business partnerships that will ensure a prosperous future for both Americans and Pakistanis," according to a US government statement.
And this comes on top of Trump’s claims that he brokered peace in May between India and Pakistan following a terrorist massacre in Indian Kashmir. While Indian officials contest Trump’s claims, Pakistan has only added fuel to the fire by formally recommending Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. “At a moment of heightened regional turbulence, President Trump demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi,” Pakistan’s government said in a statement.
It is not difficult to speculate that the Trump administration, like earlier US administrations, has a keen eye on Pakistan’s potential geopolitical relevance, with its borders on Iran, Afghanistan and China's Xinjiang region. Trump’s hosting of Pakistan’s army chief for lunch at the White House in June has also stimulated geopolitical speculations.
There have long been ups and downs in India’s relations with the US. But this time seems much more serious. Trump’s actions against India, like those against Europe, are perhaps a perfect example of how a long term international relationship based on trust and mutual interests, crafted over decades, can be blown apart virtually overnight. Even if Trump reverses his policies, the trust between India and the US will be ruptured for a long time.
As the postwar era unfolded, both the US and the UK tended to side with Pakistan, rather than India, as it suited their own foreign policy interests in the Middle East and vis-a-vis China. This came to a head in July 1971 when Pakistan was the point of departure for Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to Beijing to prepare for President Nixon’s 1972 visit which opened up relations between China and the US.
At the very same time, the Bangladesh War of Independence was underway with East Pakistan fighting for independence from West Pakistan. But with Kissinger and Nixon focused on relations with China, the US sided with Pakistan in this conflict.
Indeed, under the pretext of evacuating American citizens from the warzone, Nixon ordered the US Seventh Fleet’s Task Force 74, led by the nuclear powered aircraft carrier Enterprise, to proceed towards the Bay of Bengal to prevent India from overrunning Pakistan. This did not change the course of the war, and Bangladesh would achieve its independence. But this incident left deep scars in India, which are still felt today, and serve as a warning of American unreliability. Indeed, India moved decisively into the Soviet camp by signing a friendship treaty with Russia in 1971.
Through the Cold War period the US would continue to side with Pakistan, especially to use it as a base against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The US pro-Pakistan bias would only incentivise India and the Soviet Union to develop and strengthen relations, especially when it comes to supplies of military equipment.
President George W. Bush emerged as the unlikely hero of US/India relations as he forged a landmark agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation, which cleared the path for India to purchase American nuclear fuel and technology. Presidents Obama and Trump (1.0) would build on this, as India was identified as a key partner in the great power contest between China and the US.
The US, along with countries like Japan and Australia, would adopt the “Indo-Pacific framework” to highlight the role and importance of India in regional security. India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the “Quad”), along with Australia, Japan and the US. The Quad is an informal partnership, which is focused on maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region in the face of China’s assertive behaviour in the region. But there is now a question mark over this year’s Quad summit which is due to be held in India.
Geopolitical analysts regard the opening of relations between the US and China as an event of historic significance, and quite rightly so. But the development of the US/India partnership over the past 25 years is of no less historical significance. All the moreso, since US/India relations had not disintegrated as US/China relations have over the past decade or so – that is not until the advent of Trump 2.0.
In sum, one major impact of Trump 2.0 could be the forging of an even closer partnership between the four leading countries of the BRICS group.
The US and India would seem to have so much in common. They are both led by strongmen with enormous egos, nationalist and populist discourses, and little interest in democratic values. And Narendra Modi’s India has been seen as a key partner for the US in its geopolitical tussle with China.
Modi has also been very active pandering to Trump’s fragile ego. Trump was the guest of honour at a “Howdy, Modi!” gathering of 50,000 Indian Americans in Texas in 2019 on the occasion of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the US. This was followed up during Trump’s visit to India by a “Namaste Trump” rally in 2020 at Ahmedabad, Gujarat which attracted over 100,000 people.
Trump’s actions against India
But today the US/India relationship, which has been progressively deepened over the past 25 years or so, would seem to count for little to Donald Trump. US President Donald Trump’s administration hit India with a 25 per cent tariff from 1 July, which he then doubled to 50 per cent – a much higher rate than China’s 30 per cent, Pakistan’s 19% and Vietnam’s 20 per cent. Many analysts believe that this will essentially cut off most Indian exports to the US, India’s most important trading partner.And what’s more, Trump’s America has reached out and proposed cooperation with India’s longtime adversary, Pakistan. “We are eager to explore new economic collaboration opportunities, such as in critical minerals and hydrocarbons, and to encourage vibrant business partnerships that will ensure a prosperous future for both Americans and Pakistanis," according to a US government statement.
And this comes on top of Trump’s claims that he brokered peace in May between India and Pakistan following a terrorist massacre in Indian Kashmir. While Indian officials contest Trump’s claims, Pakistan has only added fuel to the fire by formally recommending Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. “At a moment of heightened regional turbulence, President Trump demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi,” Pakistan’s government said in a statement.
It is not difficult to speculate that the Trump administration, like earlier US administrations, has a keen eye on Pakistan’s potential geopolitical relevance, with its borders on Iran, Afghanistan and China's Xinjiang region. Trump’s hosting of Pakistan’s army chief for lunch at the White House in June has also stimulated geopolitical speculations.
Why punish India?
The ostensible reason for Trump’s tariffs on India is its purchase and resale of sanctioned Russian oil following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This means that India is indirectly supporting Russia’s war effort, and profiting from it at the same time. This is true, but China is buying more Russian energy than India, and they are not the only countries snapping up Russian energy. Another point is that Modi is resisting America’s pressure to open up India’s domestic agricultural and dairy markets as they employ masses of poverty-stricken Indians.There have long been ups and downs in India’s relations with the US. But this time seems much more serious. Trump’s actions against India, like those against Europe, are perhaps a perfect example of how a long term international relationship based on trust and mutual interests, crafted over decades, can be blown apart virtually overnight. Even if Trump reverses his policies, the trust between India and the US will be ruptured for a long time.
US/India Cold War tensions
The elevation of India to being a close, strategic partner of the US has been a long and winding road. From India’s independence in 1947 until the end of the Cold War, the US and India did not have an easy relationship. Having just thrown off the yoke of British colonialism, Prime Minister Nehru and India’s other new leaders were keen to remain independent and “non-aligned”, rather than take sides in the emerging Cold War. But for US President Truman (President from 1945-53) you should take sides. Truman was thus convinced that Nehru was a communist, as Meenakshi Ahamed explains in her book, “A Matter Of Trust : India-US Relations from Truman to Trump”.As the postwar era unfolded, both the US and the UK tended to side with Pakistan, rather than India, as it suited their own foreign policy interests in the Middle East and vis-a-vis China. This came to a head in July 1971 when Pakistan was the point of departure for Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to Beijing to prepare for President Nixon’s 1972 visit which opened up relations between China and the US.
At the very same time, the Bangladesh War of Independence was underway with East Pakistan fighting for independence from West Pakistan. But with Kissinger and Nixon focused on relations with China, the US sided with Pakistan in this conflict.
Indeed, under the pretext of evacuating American citizens from the warzone, Nixon ordered the US Seventh Fleet’s Task Force 74, led by the nuclear powered aircraft carrier Enterprise, to proceed towards the Bay of Bengal to prevent India from overrunning Pakistan. This did not change the course of the war, and Bangladesh would achieve its independence. But this incident left deep scars in India, which are still felt today, and serve as a warning of American unreliability. Indeed, India moved decisively into the Soviet camp by signing a friendship treaty with Russia in 1971.
Through the Cold War period the US would continue to side with Pakistan, especially to use it as a base against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The US pro-Pakistan bias would only incentivise India and the Soviet Union to develop and strengthen relations, especially when it comes to supplies of military equipment.
Post Cold War shift in US/India relations
Following the end of the Cold War, American sentiment swung towards India driven by several factors. India’s economic reform beginning around 1991 boosted economic growth and its attractiveness as a market. With the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union, India’s foreign policy pivoted towards the West and in particular the US. The growing weight of 5 million Americans of Indian origin commanded great influence. Both India and the US viewed their partnership as a bulwark against an increasingly powerful China. India would nevertheless remain loyal to its partnership with Russia.President George W. Bush emerged as the unlikely hero of US/India relations as he forged a landmark agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation, which cleared the path for India to purchase American nuclear fuel and technology. Presidents Obama and Trump (1.0) would build on this, as India was identified as a key partner in the great power contest between China and the US.
The US, along with countries like Japan and Australia, would adopt the “Indo-Pacific framework” to highlight the role and importance of India in regional security. India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the “Quad”), along with Australia, Japan and the US. The Quad is an informal partnership, which is focused on maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region in the face of China’s assertive behaviour in the region. But there is now a question mark over this year’s Quad summit which is due to be held in India.
Geopolitical analysts regard the opening of relations between the US and China as an event of historic significance, and quite rightly so. But the development of the US/India partnership over the past 25 years is of no less historical significance. All the moreso, since US/India relations had not disintegrated as US/China relations have over the past decade or so – that is not until the advent of Trump 2.0.
What next for the US/India partnership?
According to all reports, Indian officials are sitting tight, hoping against hope that the Trump storm might pass and/or that an acceptable deal be made. At the same time, Trump’s actions may well backfire, as they have in other areas. Already, India and China, which have had very tense relations for some years, are talking again. Although there has been some waning in India/Russia relations for some time, India now has every incentive to stay close to Russia. And India is now in dialogue with Brazil which has also been struck with 50 percent tariffs by Trump.In sum, one major impact of Trump 2.0 could be the forging of an even closer partnership between the four leading countries of the BRICS group.