ASIA
24 November 2024
North Korea struts onto the global stage
The renegade nation launched ballistic missiles into the sea and sent troops to Russia and rubbish to its southern neighbor. Can Kim Jong Un be controlled?
As many as 8,000 North Korean troops are in Russia’s Kursk region and are expected to enter combat against Ukraine in the coming days.
What’s more, North Korea has reportedly shipped at least 16,500 containers of munitions and related materiel to Russia since September last year.
There are also reports from South Korea and Japan that North Korea recently fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, which flew for 86 minutes — the longest flight recorded yet — before falling into waters off its east coast. In a statement released by state media, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said, “I affirm that [North Korea] will never change its line of bolstering up its nuclear forces.”
And in another report, rubbish carried by a North Korean balloon landed on South Korea’s presidential compound, authorities have said, in the second such incident in recent months, though no dangerous items or materials were discovered.
How can we best understand North Korea’s actions?
They are geographically and symbolically separated by the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) — a border barrier where no military personnel or weaponry are permitted from either side. It divides the Korean peninsula roughly in half near the 38th parallel north.
It serves as a 4 km (2.5 mi) wide buffer zone between North and South Korea.
Although demilitarized, the DMZ’s borders on both sides are some of the most heavily-militarized borders in the world. They surround two villages that remain in the DMZ: Kijŏng-dong on the North Korean side and about two kilometers away, Daeseong-dong on the South Korean side.
Over the years, the DMZ has been the site of numerous meetings, prisoner exchanges, skirmishes, confrontations, incursions, escape attempts and other incidents. Perhaps the most newsworthy event occurred on 30 June 2019, when then-U.S.President Donald Trump, now President-elect, became the first sitting U.S. president to enter North Korea, doing so at the DMZ line.
After crossing into North Korea, Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met and shook hands.
The North remained a totalitarian state under the leadership of the “Kim family dynasty” — starting with Kim Il Sung, then his son Kim Jong Il and now grandson Kim Jong Un, who serves as North Korea’s “supreme leader.”
Meanwhile, South Korea transitioned to a democracy in 1987. Today, the Economist Intelligence Unit judges South Korea to be a “full democracy,” ranked 22nd out of the 167 countries analysed in its Democracy Index.
The South Korean economy grew rapidly through the 1970s and 1980. In contrast, North Korea’s centrally-planned economy stagnated during the 1980s. To counter its economic insecurity, it reportedly began acquiring nuclear technology with help from Pakistan, China and the Soviet Union.
After the end of the Cold War, the Kim dictatorship was spooked by the democratization and adoption of market economics in Russia, and in the former Soviet states in Central and Eastern Europe like Latvia, Estonia and Georgia, as well as in Mongolia.
The reunification of East and West Germany also exacerbated North Korea’s fear that the United States wanted to reunify Korea. Instead of transforming into a market economy and democracy itself, North Korea decided to double down on efforts for regime survival.
It invested heavily in its military both to act as a deterrent to potential aggressors and to extract economic concessions from the United States, Japan and South Korea. Even while China opened its market, North Korea also maintained firm control over its economy.
U.S. interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya only confirmed the vulnerabilities that the Kim regime felt, and seemed to vindicate its nuclear buildup as a deterrent to the possibility of U.S. aggression.
But China has played a crucial role in the development of the North Korean menace. Some 90% of North Korea’s trade is with China, which is also responsible for the lion’s share of its foreign investment. China also hosts thousands of North Korean workers, most of whose wages go back to the North Korean regime. North Korea is highly dependent on Chinese aid, especially for food and energy.
Why would China support such a heinous regime? It’s a question of strategic buffers. As Beijing looks out toward the Pacific Ocean, it feels encircled by a string of U.S. allies — from South Korea and Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines. In other words, the Chinese see North Korea as a critical protective buffer for them against the United States.
So China does not want a regime change that would see it battling with the United States for control of the Korean peninsula. The last thing that China wants is a failed nuclear state on its border, with the prospect of millions of poor refugees flooding into the country.
It is also fearful that regime change could result in a reunification of North and South Korea, with the new state aligned with the United States, and U.S. troops sitting directly on its border.
North Korean troops participating in the Ukrainian conflict could gain useful combat experience, something which they lack due to the relative peace in East Asia for many decades. There are many questions, however, about the combat effectiveness of these North Korea troops in light of different languages and military cultures.
North Korea bristles at its long-term political dependence on China, while Russia is also uncomfortable about the relationship. Thus, the burgeoning friendship between Russia and North Korea provides an opportunity to diversify their international friendships, even if it displeases China.
Indeed, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to Pyongyang to strengthen the two countries’ deepening alignment — and their shared animosity toward the West — and to consolidate Pyongyang’s willingness to supply Moscow with weapons to sustain its war on Ukraine. Putin’s trip reciprocates one Kim made last September, when the North Korean leader traveled in an armored train to Russia’s far eastern region.
Putin’s visit and the partnership with Russia play well to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s domestic audience about his global clout. Kim will also likely benefit from the upcoming Donald Trump presidency.
The United States and its allies are deeply concerned about the destabilising impact of the cooperation between Russia and North Korea. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently had a “robust conversation” with China about North Korea sending troops to Russia, in the hope that China can use its influence to curb these activities. At a press conference in Washington, D.C. on 31 October Blinken said “that Beijing should be concerned by the deepening cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.”
Kim would be pleased at the result of the recent U.S. presidential election. During his first term, Trump had three meetings with Kim, with no concrete positive results, but with great kudos from Kim’s domestic audience. Kim’s recent actions serve to keep North Korea on the U.S. radar screen, and raise the possibility of renewed contact with Trump, now that he has won the U.S. presidential election.
What’s more, North Korea has reportedly shipped at least 16,500 containers of munitions and related materiel to Russia since September last year.
There are also reports from South Korea and Japan that North Korea recently fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, which flew for 86 minutes — the longest flight recorded yet — before falling into waters off its east coast. In a statement released by state media, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said, “I affirm that [North Korea] will never change its line of bolstering up its nuclear forces.”
And in another report, rubbish carried by a North Korean balloon landed on South Korea’s presidential compound, authorities have said, in the second such incident in recent months, though no dangerous items or materials were discovered.
How can we best understand North Korea’s actions?
A war that never ended
Today’s North Korea is a product of the war between North and South Korea that took place in the early 1950s. Following an invasion of the South by the North, the two sides fought to a virtual stalemate. This conflict was brought to an end by an armistice, but there has never been a peace treaty. Thus the two sides are still technically in a state of war.They are geographically and symbolically separated by the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) — a border barrier where no military personnel or weaponry are permitted from either side. It divides the Korean peninsula roughly in half near the 38th parallel north.
It serves as a 4 km (2.5 mi) wide buffer zone between North and South Korea.
Although demilitarized, the DMZ’s borders on both sides are some of the most heavily-militarized borders in the world. They surround two villages that remain in the DMZ: Kijŏng-dong on the North Korean side and about two kilometers away, Daeseong-dong on the South Korean side.
Over the years, the DMZ has been the site of numerous meetings, prisoner exchanges, skirmishes, confrontations, incursions, escape attempts and other incidents. Perhaps the most newsworthy event occurred on 30 June 2019, when then-U.S.President Donald Trump, now President-elect, became the first sitting U.S. president to enter North Korea, doing so at the DMZ line.
After crossing into North Korea, Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met and shook hands.
A totalitarian dynasty
North Korea was supported during the war by China and the then-Soviet Union, while the United States, Great Britain, Australia and others sent troops to South Korea under a United Nations banner. This political alignment continued after the Korean War, as the two Koreas became a hot spot in the emerging Cold War.The North remained a totalitarian state under the leadership of the “Kim family dynasty” — starting with Kim Il Sung, then his son Kim Jong Il and now grandson Kim Jong Un, who serves as North Korea’s “supreme leader.”
Meanwhile, South Korea transitioned to a democracy in 1987. Today, the Economist Intelligence Unit judges South Korea to be a “full democracy,” ranked 22nd out of the 167 countries analysed in its Democracy Index.
The South Korean economy grew rapidly through the 1970s and 1980. In contrast, North Korea’s centrally-planned economy stagnated during the 1980s. To counter its economic insecurity, it reportedly began acquiring nuclear technology with help from Pakistan, China and the Soviet Union.
A regime survives through world turmoil.
The end of the Cold War and the 1990s was a major turning point in North Korea’s modern history. It suffered greatly from the loss of financial support from the Soviet Union, when it dissolved, and from natural disasters and economic mismanagement which led to a massive famine with over 300,000 people dying. it did however benefit from out-of-work Russian rocket scientists who sought work in North Korea.After the end of the Cold War, the Kim dictatorship was spooked by the democratization and adoption of market economics in Russia, and in the former Soviet states in Central and Eastern Europe like Latvia, Estonia and Georgia, as well as in Mongolia.
The reunification of East and West Germany also exacerbated North Korea’s fear that the United States wanted to reunify Korea. Instead of transforming into a market economy and democracy itself, North Korea decided to double down on efforts for regime survival.
It invested heavily in its military both to act as a deterrent to potential aggressors and to extract economic concessions from the United States, Japan and South Korea. Even while China opened its market, North Korea also maintained firm control over its economy.
U.S. interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya only confirmed the vulnerabilities that the Kim regime felt, and seemed to vindicate its nuclear buildup as a deterrent to the possibility of U.S. aggression.
A partnership with China
For many years, North Korea has been playing cat and mouse with the international community over its development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. Today, the Chinese government sees great dangers in its volatile behavior.But China has played a crucial role in the development of the North Korean menace. Some 90% of North Korea’s trade is with China, which is also responsible for the lion’s share of its foreign investment. China also hosts thousands of North Korean workers, most of whose wages go back to the North Korean regime. North Korea is highly dependent on Chinese aid, especially for food and energy.
Why would China support such a heinous regime? It’s a question of strategic buffers. As Beijing looks out toward the Pacific Ocean, it feels encircled by a string of U.S. allies — from South Korea and Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines. In other words, the Chinese see North Korea as a critical protective buffer for them against the United States.
So China does not want a regime change that would see it battling with the United States for control of the Korean peninsula. The last thing that China wants is a failed nuclear state on its border, with the prospect of millions of poor refugees flooding into the country.
It is also fearful that regime change could result in a reunification of North and South Korea, with the new state aligned with the United States, and U.S. troops sitting directly on its border.
Opportunities in global rifts
Against this background, the current geopolitical quagmire presents many opportunities for North Korea’s paranoid, totalitarian regime. Exporting munitions to Russia provides a helpful source of revenue for the impoverished North Korean regime. In return, Russia also provides North Korea with advanced military technology.North Korean troops participating in the Ukrainian conflict could gain useful combat experience, something which they lack due to the relative peace in East Asia for many decades. There are many questions, however, about the combat effectiveness of these North Korea troops in light of different languages and military cultures.
North Korea bristles at its long-term political dependence on China, while Russia is also uncomfortable about the relationship. Thus, the burgeoning friendship between Russia and North Korea provides an opportunity to diversify their international friendships, even if it displeases China.
Indeed, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to Pyongyang to strengthen the two countries’ deepening alignment — and their shared animosity toward the West — and to consolidate Pyongyang’s willingness to supply Moscow with weapons to sustain its war on Ukraine. Putin’s trip reciprocates one Kim made last September, when the North Korean leader traveled in an armored train to Russia’s far eastern region.
Putin’s visit and the partnership with Russia play well to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s domestic audience about his global clout. Kim will also likely benefit from the upcoming Donald Trump presidency.
The United States and its allies are deeply concerned about the destabilising impact of the cooperation between Russia and North Korea. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently had a “robust conversation” with China about North Korea sending troops to Russia, in the hope that China can use its influence to curb these activities. At a press conference in Washington, D.C. on 31 October Blinken said “that Beijing should be concerned by the deepening cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.”
Kim would be pleased at the result of the recent U.S. presidential election. During his first term, Trump had three meetings with Kim, with no concrete positive results, but with great kudos from Kim’s domestic audience. Kim’s recent actions serve to keep North Korea on the U.S. radar screen, and raise the possibility of renewed contact with Trump, now that he has won the U.S. presidential election.