ASIA
09 August 2024
Can NATO prevent a third world war?
The mutual defence pact started with 12 nations and now has 32 members. But does bigger mean safer?
War in Ukraine drags on after more than two years of Russian aggression.
Russian President Vladimir Putin justified the invasion in part by blaming provocation by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, known as NATO; it had suggested that Ukraine could join the mutual defence pact.
NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary at a summit meeting from 9 to 11 July 2024 in Washington, D.C., hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden. There, NATO leaders affirmed their “unwavering commitment to Ukraine.” They described it as a sovereign, democratic, independent state and underlined their determination to help Ukraine build a force capable of reversing the Russian aggression and deterring it in the future.
But the likely outcome of the war is still far from clear, as is the strength of commitment to the Ukrainian cause by some of NATO’s leading members.
At the end of World War Two, Western European leaders saw that their nations were too weak to defend themselves against the Soviet Union in the emerging Cold War. They wanted help from the United States. NATO was born in 1949 with 12 founding members.
For its part, the United States feared that the Soviet Union could install communist regimes in all of Europe and close it off. Another fear was a return to more traditional power politics in Europe and the risk of more conflict.
Hastings Lionel Ismay, NATO’s first Secretary General, said NATO would “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in and the Germans down.”
NATO’s membership has progressively expanded; a large number of Central and Eastern European countries joined NATO following the end of the Cold War in the 1990s. Finland and Sweden joined recently in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The 32 current member states of NATO are Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
NATO had every reason to stick together during the Cold War (from 1947 to 1991), a period of great geopolitical tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union and their respective allies. But NATO also had to navigate tensions within the alliance on a variety of issues.
There were, for example, intense debates over the re-arming of West Germany and its accession into NATO in 1955.
But NATO remained strong because members did not allow their differences to override their enduring shared interests and values.
The end of the Cold War provoked a big debate about the future of NATO. Some believed that NATO had fulfilled its mission and was now obsolete. Others thought it more wise to build on NATO’s 40 years of success, by transforming its emphasis from military to something more political and diplomatic, and even partner with Russia. Ultimately this second approach won out.
In 1997, the NATO-Russia Founding Act created a new relationship between the alliance and Russia. According to the preamble, NATO and Russia do not consider one another adversaries. A new forum, the NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council, was created.
Russia was to have no veto over NATO decisions, and the Act was to have no impact on NATO enlargement.
The other former Warsaw Pact countries then chose to join NATO: in 1999, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland; in 2004, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia; in 2009, Albania. In 2004, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, formerly of the Soviet Union, also joined NATO. These countries chose this time of Russian weakness to join NATO out of fear that Russia may regain strength and revert to its old imperial ways.
For its part, Russia was supposed to deliver democratic reforms. That did not happen.
In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, a region most of the world recognises as part of Ukraine, and began supporting pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine. It launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Ukraine had been promised future NATO membership back in 2008, but there was no specified date and the issue was subsequently moved to the back-burner.
It is difficult to see how Ukraine’s possible NATO membership could reasonably be considered a factor. NATO is a purely defensive organisation, not offensive.
It makes decisions by consensus, and members like Hungary and Turkey would be highly unlikely to allow NATO to threaten Russia. Most of the military assets of NATO countries are not assigned to NATO, but remain national assets.
Subsequently, Ukraine, a long-term NATO partner, benefited from NATO support — both in equipment and money — to reform its armed forces and defence institutions.
But NATO’s underwhelming response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea may have helped convince Putin that the West ultimately lacked the resolve to confront his bigger ambitions.
As Ukraine is not a member of NATO, its security is not protected by Article 5. However, since the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, NATO allies have provided unprecedented political, economic, military, financial and humanitarian support, including military assistance amounting to roughly €40 billion annually.
NATO seemed to have burst back into life following its post-Cold War slumber. But NATO countries have also been widely criticised on many points — slowness in providing assistance and the many restrictions that they have placed on the use of Western equipment and supplies.
As the Ukraine conflict has dragged on, Russia has been able to garner support from China, North Korea and Iran. The NATO summit in July 2024 called out China as a “decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.” This means that this Euro-Atlantic conflict now has an Indo-Pacific dimension.
NATO has now adopted as partners the “Indo-Pacific Four” countries of Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.
There was an air of triumph at the recent NATO summit with commitments for continuing substantial support for Ukraine, and for Ukraine’s “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership” — though at an unspecified date.
But a continuing U.S. concern is that Europe is not pulling its weight in the continent’s defence. Under pressure from President Obama’s administration, in 2014 NATO members pledged to commit to defence spending at least 2% of their gross domestic product — the total value of goods produced in the country — something most members were not doing.
As president, Donald Trump was more critical of Europe’s low defence spending, as well as Europe’s enormous purchases of Russian gas and oil, which only supported Putin’s Russia. He even made threats that he would withdraw the United States from NATO, or that he would not apply Article 5 to countries that spend less than 2% of their GDP on defence.
U.S. pressures and the Ukraine war have provoked a surge in defence spending by NATO members. Now, out of the 32 NATO allies, this year 23 will meet the agreed target of spending 2% of GDP on national defence. Only three NATO members were spending over 2% in 2014.
He claims that he can end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day, perhaps by reducing U.S. support from Ukraine and doing a bilateral deal with President Putin.
In December 2023, the U.S. Congress approved legislation that would prevent any president from withdrawing the United States from NATO without approval from the Senate or an act of Congress. But there is still much that the United States could do to weaken NATO without withdrawal.
Looking ahead, Europe must prepare for at least some U.S. retrenchment from NATO, as the Indo-Pacific region becomes a growing American priority and domestic politics constrains U.S. participation.
This would lead to a much more European NATO, with Europeans assuming a larger share of the burden and responsibilities. For now, NATO’s greatest challenge is maintaining its credibility — by ensuring that Ukraine wins the war against Russia.
Mutual defence pact: A pledge by nations to defend each other if any are attacked by an outside nation.
Gross domestic product: The value of all goods produced within a country. It is used to compare the economic health of nations.
Geopolitical tension: Anxiety or conflict that arises when nations or groups of countries believe that the actions or policies of other nations will harm their economy or welfare.
Russian President Vladimir Putin justified the invasion in part by blaming provocation by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, known as NATO; it had suggested that Ukraine could join the mutual defence pact.
NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary at a summit meeting from 9 to 11 July 2024 in Washington, D.C., hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden. There, NATO leaders affirmed their “unwavering commitment to Ukraine.” They described it as a sovereign, democratic, independent state and underlined their determination to help Ukraine build a force capable of reversing the Russian aggression and deterring it in the future.
But the likely outcome of the war is still far from clear, as is the strength of commitment to the Ukrainian cause by some of NATO’s leading members.
At the end of World War Two, Western European leaders saw that their nations were too weak to defend themselves against the Soviet Union in the emerging Cold War. They wanted help from the United States. NATO was born in 1949 with 12 founding members.
For its part, the United States feared that the Soviet Union could install communist regimes in all of Europe and close it off. Another fear was a return to more traditional power politics in Europe and the risk of more conflict.
Hastings Lionel Ismay, NATO’s first Secretary General, said NATO would “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in and the Germans down.”
Freedom and security through politics and arms
NATO is now a security alliance of 30 European countries, the United States and Canada. Its purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means. At the heart of NATO is Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides that an attack on one member is considered an attack against all members which will take actions to assist the ally under attack.NATO’s membership has progressively expanded; a large number of Central and Eastern European countries joined NATO following the end of the Cold War in the 1990s. Finland and Sweden joined recently in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The 32 current member states of NATO are Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
NATO had every reason to stick together during the Cold War (from 1947 to 1991), a period of great geopolitical tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union and their respective allies. But NATO also had to navigate tensions within the alliance on a variety of issues.
There were, for example, intense debates over the re-arming of West Germany and its accession into NATO in 1955.
Shared interests and values
France withdrew from NATO’s integrated military structure in 1966. In the 1970s, NATO allies Greece and Turkey nearly went to war over Cyprus. There were also recurrent public protests about nuclear weapons.But NATO remained strong because members did not allow their differences to override their enduring shared interests and values.
The end of the Cold War provoked a big debate about the future of NATO. Some believed that NATO had fulfilled its mission and was now obsolete. Others thought it more wise to build on NATO’s 40 years of success, by transforming its emphasis from military to something more political and diplomatic, and even partner with Russia. Ultimately this second approach won out.
In 1997, the NATO-Russia Founding Act created a new relationship between the alliance and Russia. According to the preamble, NATO and Russia do not consider one another adversaries. A new forum, the NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council, was created.
Russia was to have no veto over NATO decisions, and the Act was to have no impact on NATO enlargement.
The other former Warsaw Pact countries then chose to join NATO: in 1999, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland; in 2004, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia; in 2009, Albania. In 2004, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, formerly of the Soviet Union, also joined NATO. These countries chose this time of Russian weakness to join NATO out of fear that Russia may regain strength and revert to its old imperial ways.
Growing pains
But the larger NATO became, the weaker it was. Member countries cut military expenditures because they now saw less of a threat from Russia than they had from the Soviet Union — this was known as the “peace dividend” — even as NATO’s geographic responsibilities broadened vastly.For its part, Russia was supposed to deliver democratic reforms. That did not happen.
In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, a region most of the world recognises as part of Ukraine, and began supporting pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine. It launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Ukraine had been promised future NATO membership back in 2008, but there was no specified date and the issue was subsequently moved to the back-burner.
It is difficult to see how Ukraine’s possible NATO membership could reasonably be considered a factor. NATO is a purely defensive organisation, not offensive.
It makes decisions by consensus, and members like Hungary and Turkey would be highly unlikely to allow NATO to threaten Russia. Most of the military assets of NATO countries are not assigned to NATO, but remain national assets.
War in Ukraine
The Russian seizure of Crimea in early 2014 caught the world by surprise. While Western leaders were quick to condemn the Kremlin’s actions, their response was marked by a high degree of caution. Relatively weak economic sanctions were implemented, and there was no attempt to oppose the invasion militarily.Subsequently, Ukraine, a long-term NATO partner, benefited from NATO support — both in equipment and money — to reform its armed forces and defence institutions.
But NATO’s underwhelming response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea may have helped convince Putin that the West ultimately lacked the resolve to confront his bigger ambitions.
As Ukraine is not a member of NATO, its security is not protected by Article 5. However, since the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, NATO allies have provided unprecedented political, economic, military, financial and humanitarian support, including military assistance amounting to roughly €40 billion annually.
NATO seemed to have burst back into life following its post-Cold War slumber. But NATO countries have also been widely criticised on many points — slowness in providing assistance and the many restrictions that they have placed on the use of Western equipment and supplies.
Containing conflict
The West fears that an escalation of the conflict could spread to Europe, and both NATO and Russia have nuclear weapons.As the Ukraine conflict has dragged on, Russia has been able to garner support from China, North Korea and Iran. The NATO summit in July 2024 called out China as a “decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.” This means that this Euro-Atlantic conflict now has an Indo-Pacific dimension.
NATO has now adopted as partners the “Indo-Pacific Four” countries of Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.
There was an air of triumph at the recent NATO summit with commitments for continuing substantial support for Ukraine, and for Ukraine’s “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership” — though at an unspecified date.
But a continuing U.S. concern is that Europe is not pulling its weight in the continent’s defence. Under pressure from President Obama’s administration, in 2014 NATO members pledged to commit to defence spending at least 2% of their gross domestic product — the total value of goods produced in the country — something most members were not doing.
As president, Donald Trump was more critical of Europe’s low defence spending, as well as Europe’s enormous purchases of Russian gas and oil, which only supported Putin’s Russia. He even made threats that he would withdraw the United States from NATO, or that he would not apply Article 5 to countries that spend less than 2% of their GDP on defence.
U.S. pressures and the Ukraine war have provoked a surge in defence spending by NATO members. Now, out of the 32 NATO allies, this year 23 will meet the agreed target of spending 2% of GDP on national defence. Only three NATO members were spending over 2% in 2014.
NATO and the U.S. presidency
Despite this increase in European defence spending, the spectre of a possible return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States hangs over NATO.He claims that he can end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day, perhaps by reducing U.S. support from Ukraine and doing a bilateral deal with President Putin.
In December 2023, the U.S. Congress approved legislation that would prevent any president from withdrawing the United States from NATO without approval from the Senate or an act of Congress. But there is still much that the United States could do to weaken NATO without withdrawal.
Looking ahead, Europe must prepare for at least some U.S. retrenchment from NATO, as the Indo-Pacific region becomes a growing American priority and domestic politics constrains U.S. participation.
This would lead to a much more European NATO, with Europeans assuming a larger share of the burden and responsibilities. For now, NATO’s greatest challenge is maintaining its credibility — by ensuring that Ukraine wins the war against Russia.
Glossary of terms
Cold War: A hostile relationship between countries where both try to avoid open warfare and fight instead through non-military means like trade restrictions and propaganda.Mutual defence pact: A pledge by nations to defend each other if any are attacked by an outside nation.
Gross domestic product: The value of all goods produced within a country. It is used to compare the economic health of nations.
Geopolitical tension: Anxiety or conflict that arises when nations or groups of countries believe that the actions or policies of other nations will harm their economy or welfare.