CHINA
22 March 2014
US-China Strategic Distrust
US Senate confirmation hearings for President Obama's foreign policy and security team will focus on Middle East issues, not on the "main game" of China, unfortunately.
US President Barack Obama has nominated John Kerry to be the new Secretary of State, Chuck Hagel to be the next Secretary of Defense, and John Brennan to take over the directorship of the CIA.
These nominations must be approved by the US Senate, and a bruising Senate confirmation process is now certain for the latter two. Issues at the top of the agenda will be support for Israel, toughness on Iran, and the US's national and military strength.
Without diminishing the importance of any of these issues, they are not the main game in the 21st century. The greatest foreign policy and security challenges facing the US over the coming four years and beyond will be managing the US/China relationship and addressing the strategic distrust (mutual distrust of long term intentions) between the two countries, an issue very well analysed by Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi in a recent Brookings Publication.
The US and China are the world's biggest two economies, with China's total GDP set to overtake America's in a matter of years. They have known each other for more than 40 years since President Nixon first visited China. Their economies are intimately linked through trade, investment, finance and migration. The highest level leaders meet relatively frequently, and there are more than sixty regular government-to-government dialogues between agencies in the two governments each year.
And yet, their strategic distrust, deeply rooted in history, is only getting worse -- even though the US claims that it is prepared to accommodate China's rise as a responsible superpower, while China is not seeking to replace America's global leadership. Name a global issue -- North Korea, Iran Syria, or monetary policy -- and the two countries are likely to be arguing about it.
In short, China's rise is changing the economic and political structure of the world, and the US/China relationship will define the shape of the 21st century.
In Beijing's view, it is US policies, attitude and misconceptions that cause the lack of mutual trust between the two countries. Chinese political elites believe that the US is seeking to maintain global hegemony and constrain or even upset China's rise. Their strategic distrust of the US derive from four sentiments: China's feeling that since 2008 it has become and should be treated as a first-class global power; the assessment that the US is heading for decline; the observation that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are challenging Western dominance; and the notion that China's development model of strong political leadership that effectively manages social and economic affairs ("Beijing consensus") provides an alternative from Western models for other developing countries.
For their part, American leaders are deeply concerned that China is seeking to dominate the Asian region at significant cost to US influence and interests -- that is, a zero sum relationship, not win-win. In the economics and trade area, the US is concerned about intellectual property theft, China's currency policy, restrictions on foreign direct investment in China, and China's use as a foreign policy tool of export restrictions on rare earths.
There are three fundamental sources of the growing strategic distrust: different political traditions, value systems and cultures; insufficient comprehension and appreciation of each other's policy-making process; and the perceived narrowing power gap between the two countries.
It is essential that the two countries work ever more closely together to improve mutual understanding in areas like economics and trade, military affairs, cyber security, and trilateral relations (like China/Japan/US and China/India/US).
But the two countries' fundamentally and irreconcilable different political traditions, value systems and cultures pose great relationship challenges. Americans don't trust authoritarian political systems run by parties that call themselves communist. Authoritarian political systems are inherently less stable, more prone to blaming others for their domestic discontent, and less transparent. But from China's point of view, the US democratic system poses an existential threat to its system of governance.
In short, the US/China relationship will require very careful management. In the context of growing strategic distrust, an "accident" could trigger a devastating political or military crisis between the US and China. And this must be avoided at all costs.
In this context, it is most regrettable that the US Congress has not yet shown any interest for its confirmation process in the biggest foreign policy and security challenge facing America, and indeed the world, in the 21st century.
Executive Director
Asian Century Institute
www.asiancenturyinstitute.com
These nominations must be approved by the US Senate, and a bruising Senate confirmation process is now certain for the latter two. Issues at the top of the agenda will be support for Israel, toughness on Iran, and the US's national and military strength.
Without diminishing the importance of any of these issues, they are not the main game in the 21st century. The greatest foreign policy and security challenges facing the US over the coming four years and beyond will be managing the US/China relationship and addressing the strategic distrust (mutual distrust of long term intentions) between the two countries, an issue very well analysed by Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi in a recent Brookings Publication.
The US and China are the world's biggest two economies, with China's total GDP set to overtake America's in a matter of years. They have known each other for more than 40 years since President Nixon first visited China. Their economies are intimately linked through trade, investment, finance and migration. The highest level leaders meet relatively frequently, and there are more than sixty regular government-to-government dialogues between agencies in the two governments each year.
And yet, their strategic distrust, deeply rooted in history, is only getting worse -- even though the US claims that it is prepared to accommodate China's rise as a responsible superpower, while China is not seeking to replace America's global leadership. Name a global issue -- North Korea, Iran Syria, or monetary policy -- and the two countries are likely to be arguing about it.
In short, China's rise is changing the economic and political structure of the world, and the US/China relationship will define the shape of the 21st century.
In Beijing's view, it is US policies, attitude and misconceptions that cause the lack of mutual trust between the two countries. Chinese political elites believe that the US is seeking to maintain global hegemony and constrain or even upset China's rise. Their strategic distrust of the US derive from four sentiments: China's feeling that since 2008 it has become and should be treated as a first-class global power; the assessment that the US is heading for decline; the observation that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are challenging Western dominance; and the notion that China's development model of strong political leadership that effectively manages social and economic affairs ("Beijing consensus") provides an alternative from Western models for other developing countries.
For their part, American leaders are deeply concerned that China is seeking to dominate the Asian region at significant cost to US influence and interests -- that is, a zero sum relationship, not win-win. In the economics and trade area, the US is concerned about intellectual property theft, China's currency policy, restrictions on foreign direct investment in China, and China's use as a foreign policy tool of export restrictions on rare earths.
There are three fundamental sources of the growing strategic distrust: different political traditions, value systems and cultures; insufficient comprehension and appreciation of each other's policy-making process; and the perceived narrowing power gap between the two countries.
It is essential that the two countries work ever more closely together to improve mutual understanding in areas like economics and trade, military affairs, cyber security, and trilateral relations (like China/Japan/US and China/India/US).
But the two countries' fundamentally and irreconcilable different political traditions, value systems and cultures pose great relationship challenges. Americans don't trust authoritarian political systems run by parties that call themselves communist. Authoritarian political systems are inherently less stable, more prone to blaming others for their domestic discontent, and less transparent. But from China's point of view, the US democratic system poses an existential threat to its system of governance.
In short, the US/China relationship will require very careful management. In the context of growing strategic distrust, an "accident" could trigger a devastating political or military crisis between the US and China. And this must be avoided at all costs.
In this context, it is most regrettable that the US Congress has not yet shown any interest for its confirmation process in the biggest foreign policy and security challenge facing America, and indeed the world, in the 21st century.
Author
John WestExecutive Director
Asian Century Institute
www.asiancenturyinstitute.com