平和
和平
평화
CHINA
15 July 2020
Trump Xi Jinping

Geopolitics in a post-pandemic world -- Podcast

Neither the US nor China have come out of Covid-19 very well.  We need more time to work out who comes out on top, if either indeed do.  They are both losers at the moment.

The response to Covid-19 has exposed all kinds of weaknesses in the US.  Trump's leadership has been poor.  It is possible that the same outcome could have occurred under almost any other president.  Very similar problems around malfunctioning of testing, and around cooperation between the states and federal government.  The US is not looking very good at the moment.

But China doesn't look that great either.  It's trying to take advantage of the situation.  But it is always going to be the country of the source of the virus, the country that misled and obfuscated at the beginning of the outbreak.  Whatever else it does, it will always have that stigma.

Neither country has come out on top.  It is striking how similar the two countries' rhetoric about each other is.  It is like watching two kids in a school.  It is shocking that these are the two most powerful countries on earth.

Post war liberal order worked for the US because the US wrote the rules, and benefited from this.  But US frustration with the world order in part reflects the fact that the US cannot dominate like it used.

May be the US is an unreliable ally for Australia.  But may be Australia is so distant from the world and conflicts that it does not matter.

Domestically, Xi Jinping has gained in popular opinion from his handling of Covid-19.

But within the CCP, there are some like Li Keqiang who would like a more cooperative relationship with the US.  CCP not monolithic.

Nationalistic sentiments will continue to run high in China, and will undermine US/China relationship.  CCP will have to pay attention to nationalism.

Tags: china, great power rivalry

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