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04 May 2014
Obama vs. Romney 2012

US elections -- who's gonna win now?

Barack Obama should lose the upcoming US presidential elections because of the poor economy. But ...

Barack Obama should lose the upcoming US presidential elections because of the poor economy. But curiously he still has a good chance.

Most of the polls have it neck-and-neck between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Same goes for most political forecasters. Too close to call! A toss up!

But according to Douglas Hibbs, President Obama will lose the election with only 46.6 per cent of the vote (the same as John McCain in 2008), based on Hibbs' econometric analysis of US elections going back more than 60 years. This professor emeritus from Sweden's Gothenburg University argues that US presidential elections are determined by two factors, recent trends in the economy, and US military deaths in unprovoked wars (such as Korea, Vietnam or Iraq).

On this occasion, military deaths will not play an important role. Obama inherited the Iraq war, so he will not be blamed for that. Obama is responsible for the "surge" or escalation of the war in Afghanistan. But the number of deaths is too low to affect this year's election.

So it all comes down to the economy. The election is a referendum on the Administration's economic management. The incumbent owns the economy. And while it has been growing again for some time, overall it has been weak. This should mean the downfall of Obama.

Hibbs acknowledges the possible intervention of idiosyncratic factors. On Romney's side, negative idiosyncracies are his social awkwardness, sketchy financial affairs and his religion. On Obama's side, most idiosyncracies are positive. He resonates with ethnic minorities and young people. He is seen as cool and hip. His policies for health, migration and gay marriage could also be a plus. Obama's race might be a neutral factor, with the positive bias of American blacks balancing with the negative bias of some whites.

Overall, Hibbs does not believe that idiosyncratic factors will play much of a role. But Hibbs did not fully convince his audience at the University of Toronto -- possibly because a large majority of Canadians prefer Obama.

What other factors could help Obama? In recent months, the US economy has been picking up, and consumer and economic confidence are improving. Just today, the latest US jobs report showed that the US economy added 171,000 new jobs in October, much more than expected. And while the unemployment rate still rose to 7.9%, from 7.8% in September, this is because more workers resumed the search for jobs, a positive sign in itself.

Demographics is another factor, as the US becomes less white and more "ethnic". The extremism of the Republican Tea Party movement might push some Republican moderates into the Democrat camp. Witness the case of Colin Powell.

One idiosyncratic factor not discussed is Hurricane Sandy which has put a stop to the election campaign circus for the moment. How will Sandy affect the elections? There are many complex factors at play.

Early voting is taking a hit from the hurricane, and voter turnout is expected to be lower in the hurricane-affected states. This will adversely affect President Obama, though some of the hurricane-affected states are relatively safe Obama states.

The hurricane is providing Obama with an opportunity to show leadership, and he is doing very well, receiving plaudits from none other than New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie, himself a rabid Republican and Romney supporter.

It is widely argued that global warming may have exacerbated the intensity of Hurricane Sandy. And Mitt Romney's moral bankruptcy on climate change is well established. In his speech to the Republican Convention, he said "President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and heal the planet. MY promise...is to help you and your family". It goes without saying that many of our families can be affected by climate change.

The hurricane has focussed attention on the role of government, and Romney's campaign to emasculate the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The hurricane shows that while government can not and should not try to do everything, there are some areas in which government should take the lead, and natural disaster management and relief is one of them. FEMA is a good example of effective government at work.

The hurricane has also slowed Romney's momentum, and will no doubt take some of the heat out of the increasingly vulgar campaign. It is unseemly for both candidates to bash each other relentlessly when people are suffering.

An important effect of Hurricane Sandy might be to offer those still-undecided American citizens a "cooling off" period in which to consider more seriously their votes. How this could swing the election, nobody knows.

But Hurricane Sandy seems to be playing into Obama's hand, and Romney appears wrong-footed. Overall, Obama may now have the edge. He is now receiving support from unlikely quarters such as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, celebrated Financial Times' journalist Martin Wolf, and The Economist Magazine.

Hibbs did predict that the US economy would be booming in 2 years time, as it finally pulls through the effects of the financial crisis. The winner of the upcoming election, whoever it is, will thus be crowned as a great economic manager.

This provides a hint of another factor in Obama's favor. Many people realize that he was dealt a very difficult hand, and that more than one presidential term is necessary to extricate America from economic downturn.

What does all of this have to do with the Asian Century?

One of Obama's major contributions is to assert that the US is a "Pacific country", and that it wants to be fully involved in the Asia-Pacific region. Romney, by contrast, is a representative of "old America", whose foreign policy is obsessed with Israel and the Middle East, and who sees Asia as more of a threat than an opportunity.

The Asian Century Institute fully supports the re-election of President Barack Obama for many reasons, including the positive contribution that he could make to realizing a peaceful and prosperous Asia Century.

Author

John West
Executive Director
Asian Century Institute
www.asiancenturyinstitute.com
Tags: asia, US elections, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Hurricane Sandy, Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Toronto

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