CHINA
22 March 2014
Obama and Xi, Peace and Prosperity
Barack Obama and Xi Jinping are the right guys to forge a Pax Pacifica, according to Kevin Rudd, the former Australian Prime Minister and Foreign Minister.
Barack Obama and Xi Jinping (China's incoming President) are the right guys to forge a Pax Pacifica, according to Kevin Rudd, the former Australian Prime Minister and Foreign Minister.
The Asia-Pacific region currently finds itself in the midst of the competing cross-currents of history, Rudd argued in an address to the Australian Foreign Correspondents’ Association. While economic globalization is drawing our countries closer together, the ancient, almost primordial forces of political nationalism are threatening to tear our countries apart.
The examples are too numerous -- Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Straits, Kashmir, South China Sea, East China Sea and the Sea of Japan. The challenge for our region is ultimately one of whether the globalists or the nationalists will prevail. The political and economic stakes are very high.
What we need is a sustainable, long-term regional rules-based order which preserves our common peace and prosperity, especially since over the next decade, China could well surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy.
What happens in Sino-US relations during this time will be the key to the future peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific. The region must avoid repeating the mistakes of Europe. Rudd argues that it is time to craft a Pax Pacifica to underpin our wider future.
Why is Barack Obama important? While it doesn't gain a mention in the US presidential campaign, the Obama Administration's new strategic settings for US continued engagement in the Asia-Pacific have been one of its great achievements.
At the military level, the US Administration is executing its “rebalance” to Asia. Diplomatically, the US has been very active, and has become a full member of the East Asia Summit. Economically, the US is pushing the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Building on this, President Obama would be well positioned to extend a hand of new strategic cooperation to China’s new political leadership, if he wins the election -- all the more so given that Congress will limit his domestic agenda.
What about Xi Jinping? Rudd sees Xi Jinping as a "Chinese leader that the Americans can do business with – not just in shaping the long-term contours of Sino-US relations in a new, constructive strategic direction, but also in shaping the broad architecture of a new rules-based order for Asia".
A US-China Strategic Roadmap? Rudd argues that President Obama and President Xi need to outline a five year US-China Strategic Roadmap with five key elements: (i) President Xi and President Obama need to meet regularly with all the key members of their respective staff; (ii) the Presidents also need to have an undisputed “point person”, a Henry Kissinger, for all the back channelling; (iii) the US and China should endeavour to make the current global rules-based order work, especially on obvious issues like Syria, trade and climate negotiations, and helping make the G20 work; (iv) the Roadmap should embrace the principles of how to build a new rules-based security order for East Asia, a new Pax Pacifica; (v) a new US-China Strategic Roadmap should seek to include both Japan and China in a new Trans-Pacific Partnership (China has not been invited to the TPP discussions, and Japan still can't decide if it wants to join).
What could stand in the way of a strong US-China partnership? It is now far from sure that President Obama will be re-elected. And while Governor Romney is now moving to the center, no-one (not even him!) can be sure what his China policies will be. He would be under great pressure from the extremist wing of the Republican Party to implement some "get tough with China" policies -- like declaring China a currency manipulator from day one, as he has promised.
Behind-the-scenes discussion and dialogue are far more effective with China. One thing that Romney and his crew fail to realize is that China knows it has to change and is already changing -- for example, the exchange rate is no longer vastly undervalued. And some observers like Rudd believe that Xi Jinping and his team will get serious about the reforms announced in China's recent Five Year Plan.
Experience shows that China-bashing is counter-productive. China itself is riddled with factions and interest groups (like the Chinese military), and a confrontationist approach by Romney would weaken the hand of moderates like Xi Jinping, who also have a daunting domestic agenda.
Developing a Pax Pacifica would require smart leadership in Beijing and Washington, and other major capitals of the region. Some core principles should include mutual acceptances of China’s peaceful rise, and the continued strategic presence of the US and its alliances. Also necessary is agreement on the non-use of force to resolve disputes, and possibly the freezing of territorial claims.
This will require long and patient diplomacy.
Executive Director
Asian Century Institute
www.asiancenturyinstitute.com
The Asia-Pacific region currently finds itself in the midst of the competing cross-currents of history, Rudd argued in an address to the Australian Foreign Correspondents’ Association. While economic globalization is drawing our countries closer together, the ancient, almost primordial forces of political nationalism are threatening to tear our countries apart.
The examples are too numerous -- Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Straits, Kashmir, South China Sea, East China Sea and the Sea of Japan. The challenge for our region is ultimately one of whether the globalists or the nationalists will prevail. The political and economic stakes are very high.
What we need is a sustainable, long-term regional rules-based order which preserves our common peace and prosperity, especially since over the next decade, China could well surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy.
What happens in Sino-US relations during this time will be the key to the future peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific. The region must avoid repeating the mistakes of Europe. Rudd argues that it is time to craft a Pax Pacifica to underpin our wider future.
Why is Barack Obama important? While it doesn't gain a mention in the US presidential campaign, the Obama Administration's new strategic settings for US continued engagement in the Asia-Pacific have been one of its great achievements.
At the military level, the US Administration is executing its “rebalance” to Asia. Diplomatically, the US has been very active, and has become a full member of the East Asia Summit. Economically, the US is pushing the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Building on this, President Obama would be well positioned to extend a hand of new strategic cooperation to China’s new political leadership, if he wins the election -- all the more so given that Congress will limit his domestic agenda.
What about Xi Jinping? Rudd sees Xi Jinping as a "Chinese leader that the Americans can do business with – not just in shaping the long-term contours of Sino-US relations in a new, constructive strategic direction, but also in shaping the broad architecture of a new rules-based order for Asia".
A US-China Strategic Roadmap? Rudd argues that President Obama and President Xi need to outline a five year US-China Strategic Roadmap with five key elements: (i) President Xi and President Obama need to meet regularly with all the key members of their respective staff; (ii) the Presidents also need to have an undisputed “point person”, a Henry Kissinger, for all the back channelling; (iii) the US and China should endeavour to make the current global rules-based order work, especially on obvious issues like Syria, trade and climate negotiations, and helping make the G20 work; (iv) the Roadmap should embrace the principles of how to build a new rules-based security order for East Asia, a new Pax Pacifica; (v) a new US-China Strategic Roadmap should seek to include both Japan and China in a new Trans-Pacific Partnership (China has not been invited to the TPP discussions, and Japan still can't decide if it wants to join).
What could stand in the way of a strong US-China partnership? It is now far from sure that President Obama will be re-elected. And while Governor Romney is now moving to the center, no-one (not even him!) can be sure what his China policies will be. He would be under great pressure from the extremist wing of the Republican Party to implement some "get tough with China" policies -- like declaring China a currency manipulator from day one, as he has promised.
Behind-the-scenes discussion and dialogue are far more effective with China. One thing that Romney and his crew fail to realize is that China knows it has to change and is already changing -- for example, the exchange rate is no longer vastly undervalued. And some observers like Rudd believe that Xi Jinping and his team will get serious about the reforms announced in China's recent Five Year Plan.
Experience shows that China-bashing is counter-productive. China itself is riddled with factions and interest groups (like the Chinese military), and a confrontationist approach by Romney would weaken the hand of moderates like Xi Jinping, who also have a daunting domestic agenda.
Developing a Pax Pacifica would require smart leadership in Beijing and Washington, and other major capitals of the region. Some core principles should include mutual acceptances of China’s peaceful rise, and the continued strategic presence of the US and its alliances. Also necessary is agreement on the non-use of force to resolve disputes, and possibly the freezing of territorial claims.
This will require long and patient diplomacy.
Author
John WestExecutive Director
Asian Century Institute
www.asiancenturyinstitute.com