Burma's troubled times

The year 2012 was in many ways the year of Burma as its process of economic and political reform started to take firmer hold.

When the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) surveyed regional opinion-leaders in mid-2012, Burma was ranked as the 6th best opportunity for growth in the Asia-Pacific region. Those most interested in Burma were respondents from Southeast Asia, and especially respondents from the business sector.

The new optimism in Burma was justified by the exhilarating political and economic transformation underway. The international community has also been showing strong support for these changes. The European Union has officially suspended all sanctions, with the exception of the arms embargo. The United States has also eased of financial and investment sanctions. And President Obama made an historic visit in November 2012.

In its excellent report, PECC explored some of the reasons for the historic changes in Burma. PECC argues that Burma's changes are "people-driven", by a public which is connected like never before and is aware of the vast changes that are taking place in the world. And the military now has a new generation of leaders that are aware of the aspirations of the people.

Geopolitics is another compelling factor that is driving the reforms. Burma is wedged between China and India, and when Western sanctions were in place, Burma was overlying dependent on China, India, Thailand and other ASEAN countries, as well as being heavily dependent on natural resource exports – like oil and gas, and gemstones.

In light of these factors, PECC concluded that "While the reform process could flounder if there is strong opposition to it by those who would prefer the status quo, the possibility that the government would be forced to back track is slim."

PECC did note that Burma still has to overcome serious challenges. The most difficult challenge is the majority-minority ethnic tensions. Burma has 135 ethnic groups. The Bamar make up 70 percent of the population, and other leading groups are the Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Chin, Mon, Rakhine and Shan. The new government has made a good start by negotiating many peace agreements. Burma also has a daunting economic policy agenda for structural reform, building institutions, improving governance and developing human resources. In all of this, the government, and the opposition in Parliament including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, need to find ways to work together on the reform process.

Despite this relatively positive assessment, developments in recent months have become more problematic.

There has been a series of violent protests by farmers who have been forced to give up their land for the expansion of a copper mine at Monywa in north-western Burma. The mine is jointly run by a Chinese company and Myanmar Economic Holdings, owned by the Burmese military.

Regarding another incident, the BBC has obtained police video showing officers standing by while Buddhist rioters attacked minority Muslims in the Burmese town of Meiktila. The footage shows a mob destroying a Muslim gold shop and then setting fire to houses. A man is seen on fire.

Further, Human Rights Watch (HRW) has recently published a report containing what it said was clear evidence of government complicity in ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity against Muslims in Rakhine state. HRW said security forces stood aside or joined in when mobs attacked Muslim communities in nine townships, razing villages and killing residents. HRW also discovered four mass grave sites in Rakhine state, which it said security forces had used to destroy evidence of the crimes.

In a recent opinion piece in the New York Times, Aung Zaw noted that many fear that the deadly anti-Muslim riots are no accident but the product of an effort led by army hard-liners to thwart both the reforms and Burma’s opening to the world. Aung Zaw is the founding editor of the Irrawaddy Publishing Group, a news organization run by Burmese journalists, with headquarters in Thailand.

Aung Zaw argues that the violence suggests a power struggle between hard-line and moderate forces in the government which is dominated by holdovers from the former military regime. The generals still control much of the nation’s wealth, and some are close to Chinese interests that stand to be eclipsed if Burma deepens economic ties to the West. The anti-Muslim violence is a useful distraction from Burmese grievances against China, whose heavy-handed economic activities have bred resentments across much of Southeast Asia.

Burma's transition to a world of economic opportunity, and political freedom was always going to be difficult, and the success of the new regime is still far from assured. Decades of corrupt military rule have left deep scars on the country. And recovering from this will be extremely difficult whilst ever these same military people continue to occupy positions of power.

Author

John West
Executive Director
Asian Century Institute
www.asiancenturyinstitute.com