平和
和平
평화
ASIA
14 August 2013
Chinese Communist Party Early  Leaders,wax figure

Asia's democratic future

Democracy is at the heart of development. But democracy only has very shallow roots in Asia. Democratic development lags well behind the economy.

Democracy is one of the fundamental human freedoms which is at the heart of development. But democracy only has very shallow roots in Asia.

Korea and Japan are the only two Asian countries considered to be full democracies by a recent Economist Intelligence Unit report, which covered some 167 countries. And Korea was only ranked 20th in the world, just ahead of the US. Japan came in 23rd, with a low score for political participation. Voter turnout is particularly low in Japan, especially among the young.

Subsequent to the publication of the EIU report, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has won elections in both the upper and lower houses, while the opposition Democratic Labor Party of Japan has been decimated. Concerns have been expressed in some quarters that Japan may be returning to the virtual one-party system that characterized Japanese politics over much of the past half century.

Taiwan (35th), India (38th), Indonesia (53rd), Thailand (58th), Malaysia (64th), and Philippines (69th) are all judged to be "flawed democracies". They are all "electoral democracies". But electoral processes are deeply flawed in many Asian countries, such as through harassment and imprisonment of opposition figures, financial corruption, government control of the mainstream media, election irregularities etc. And there is much more to democracy than elections. In this regard, a territory like Hong Kong can achieve a respectable overall score, thanks to good scores for civil liberties, political culture, functioning of government and political participation.

Democratic weakness has profound economic implications in Asia. As economies climb the development ladder, democracy and open societies are essential for fostering new ideas and innovation. It is thus not surpising that the top four countries on the EIU league table should be Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Denmark.

Some commentators argue in favor of "benevolent dictators" who may be more efficient for development. And it is difficult to deny the success of Singapore, Korea and Taiwan, which achieved very rapid economic development under authoritarian governments. But these cases are exceptions. History shows that most dictators are not benevolent.

What's more, as development proceeds, populations become better educated and prosperous, and societies become more complex. Thus, there is an organic demand for democracy and more freedom. Korea and Taiwan democratized successfully. And longstanding governments are becoming much less popular in Singapore and Malaysia.

Singapore is placed in the third category of "hybrid" regime by the EIU, and is ranked it 81st in the world. But the pressures for real democracy may become irresistable, sooner rather than later. The government's electoral popularity has been declining, despite all attempts to manipulate elections. A foreign minister, George Yeo, even lost his seat recently. And open public demonstrations have taken place, especially on the touchy issue of migration. When Singapore's aging authoritarian creator, LEE Kuan Yew, departs to meet his own creator, the city state may well face a crisis of confidence.

China is in the final group, namely authoritarian regimes, with a ranking of 142nd, scoring worse than Cuba's 127th, but a lot better than North Korea, which is at the bottom of the list of 167 countries. Assessing China is a complex business, because Chinese citizens do now have a great many freedoms, and vastly more so than in the past. For example, the population is increasingly able to express its discontent with things like corruption, environmental damage, and abuses of labor and human rights. And the government is trying to respond to these concerns, as it recognizes that the support of the people is essential for its own survival.

In China, growing societal complexity is also reflected in the different factions within the Communist Party. Some speak of "democracy inside the Party".

At the same time, many in the middle class are not pushing for democracy, since they benefit from the current system and fear the possible instability from full democracy. The consequences of giving political freedom to a large discontented population are quite unpredictable.

And a growing number of rich and middle class Chinese who are unhappy with life in China simply leave for the US, Canada, Australia or even Japan! Indeed, despite political frictions, growing numbers of Chinese are coming and staying in Japan. Today, there are more than 700,000 Chinese living in Japan, well up from the 150,000 in 1990.

The big issue for Asian and indeed global politics is whether, when and how China might democratize.

In terms of GDP per capita, China has reached the "zone of democratic transition". Factors driving possible democratization are the effects of socioeconomic change, as well as decay of the Communist Party. Many scenarios could be imagined for democratization, ranging from a "happy ending", where the Party decides to retire from power, to another Tiananmen Square incident, a financial meltdown or an environmental collapse.

We could never predict the political future of China. People have been predicting collapses and disasters in China for many years, and have always been wrong.

The Chinese Communist Party has shown a remarkable capacity to reinvent itself and respond to the domestic and international context -- "adaptive authoritarianism". It is important to recognize that the quality of China's economic governance is, like that of Singapore and Hong Kong, much better than that of more democratic countries like India and the Philippines. This is clearly evident from reports like: the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index, the World Bank's Doing Business Report, the Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom of the World Report, and Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index.

The path towards Asia's democratic future is still full of many unknowns.
Tags: asia, democracy, governance, Economist Intelligence Unit, EIU

Social share

{crossposting on} Twitted